War with Syria

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fanaskin

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why was killing gaddafi desirable? Libya is measurably worse off in every manner after getting rid of gaddafi.

Libya one year later: a forgotten memory

It's one year after the war in Libya and no one dares to make an assessment of its aftermath. The colonial powers declared they were supporting a democratic revolution against a tyrant. In fact, they have once more divided the country and restored the Senussi Dynasty to power in the eastern region of Cyrenaica. The Jamahiriya of Gadhafi's time, a strange hybrid of Proudhonian anarchy and autocracy, has given way to a liberal chaos where torture and murder have become the norm while the multinationals are on a permanent binge.
 

Sebudai

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Libya might be worse off, but are we? I'm trying to understand how regime change is beneficial tous, because that's what's truly motivating these interventions. Whether or not they end up being beneficial to Syria/Libya/whoever is irrelevant (at least in regards to understanding why we're doing what we're doing).
 

fanaskin

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I would say every country involved has a different agenda but the US would further control the region and stretegically undermine it's geo political enemies.

Syria intervention plan fueled by oil interests, not chemical weapon concern

These strategic concerns, motivated by fear of expanding Iranian influence, impacted Syria primarily in relation to pipeline geopolitics. In 2009 - the same year former French foreign minister Dumas alleges the British began planning operations in Syria - Assad refused to sign a proposed agreement with Qatar that would run a pipeline from the latter's North field, contiguous with Iran's South Pars field, through Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Syria and on to Turkey, with a view to supply European markets - albeit crucially bypassing Russia. Assad's rationale was "to protect the interests of [his] Russian ally, which is Europe's top supplier of natural gas."

Instead, the following year, Assad pursued negotiations for an alternative $10 billion pipeline plan with Iran, across Iraq to Syria, that would also potentially allow Iran to supply gas to Europe from its South Pars field shared with Qatar. The Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) for the project was signed in July 2012 - just as Syria's civil war was spreading to Damascus and Aleppo - and earlier this year Iraq signed a framework agreement for construction of the gas pipelines.

The Iran-Iraq-Syria pipeline plan was a "direct slap in the face" to Qatar's plans. No wonder Saudi Prince Bandar bin Sultan, in a failed attempt to bribe Russia to switch sides, told President Vladmir Putin that "whatever regime comes after" Assad, it will be "completely" in Saudi Arabia's hands and will "not sign any agreement allowing any Gulf country to transport its gas across Syria to Europe and compete with Russian gas exports", according to diplomatic sources. When Putin refused, the Prince vowed military action.

It would seem that contradictory self-serving Saudi and Qatari oil interests are pulling the strings of an equally self-serving oil-focused US policy in Syria, if not the wider region. It is this - the problem of establishing a pliable opposition which the US and its oil allies feel confident will play ball, pipeline-style, in a post-Assad Syria - that will determine the nature of any prospective intervention: not concern for Syrian life.
 

Urlithani

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Urlithani, are you arguing that the US Govt is using anger toward Al-Qaeda to help build support to helping them in Syria?
Not this year.
smile.png


I didn't even really answer your question when I responded. I guess I'm sick of it for other reasons. I feel like I have 9/11 fatigue. I don't think the government is using it particularly push an agenda, but they'll capitalize on it as needed to reinforce their opinion that we need a large military and a hawkish stance.
 

Sebudai

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NYT piece by Putin:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/op...yria.html?_r=0

A Plea for Caution From Russia
By VLADIMIR V. PUTIN
MOSCOW ? RECENT events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.

Relations between us have passed through different stages. We stood against each other during the cold war. But we were also allies once, and defeated the Nazis together. The universal international organization ? the United Nations ? was then established to prevent such devastation from ever happening again.

The United Nations? founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America?s consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

No one wants the United Nations to suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which collapsed because it lacked real leverage. This is possible if influential countries bypass the United Nations and take military action without Security Council authorization.

The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria?s borders. A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. It could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilize the Middle East and North Africa. It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.

Syria is not witnessing a battle for democracy, but an armed conflict between government and opposition in a multireligious country. There are few champions of democracy in Syria. But there are more than enough Qaeda fighters and extremists of all stripes battling the government. The United States State Department has designated Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, fighting with the opposition, as terrorist organizations. This internal conflict, fueled by foreign weapons supplied to the opposition, is one of the bloodiest in the world.

Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience acquired in Syria? After all, after fighting in Libya, extremists moved on to Mali. This threatens us all.

From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their own future. We are not protecting the Syrian government, but international law. We need to use the United Nations Security Council and believe that preserving law and order in today?s complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding into chaos. The law is still the law, and we must follow it whether we like it or not. Under current international law, force is permitted only in self-defense or by the decision of the Security Council. Anything else is unacceptable under the United Nations Charter and would constitute an act of aggression.

No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack ? this time against Israel ? cannot be ignored.

It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America?s long-term interest? I doubt it. Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan ?you?re either with us or against us.?

But force has proved ineffective and pointless. Afghanistan is reeling, and no one can say what will happen after international forces withdraw. Libya is divided into tribes and clans. In Iraq the civil war continues, with dozens killed each day. In the United States, many draw an analogy between Iraq and Syria, and ask why their government would want to repeat recent mistakes.

No matter how targeted the strikes or how sophisticated the weapons, civilian casualties are inevitable, including the elderly and children, whom the strikes are meant to protect.

The world reacts by asking: if you cannot count on international law, then you must find other ways to ensure your security. Thus a growing number of countries seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction. This is logical: if you have the bomb, no one will touch you. We are left with talk of the need to strengthen nonproliferation, when in reality this is being eroded.

We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement.

A new opportunity to avoid military action has emerged in the past few days. The United States, Russia and all members of the international community must take advantage of the Syrian government?s willingness to place its chemical arsenal under international control for subsequent destruction. Judging by the statements of President Obama, the United States sees this as an alternative to military action.

I welcome the president?s interest in continuing the dialogue with Russia on Syria. We must work together to keep this hope alive, as we agreed to at the Group of 8 meeting in Lough Erne in Northern Ireland in June, and steer the discussion back toward negotiations.

If we can avoid force against Syria, this will improve the atmosphere in international affairs and strengthen mutual trust. It will be our shared success and open the door to cooperation on other critical issues.

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States? policy is ?what makes America different. It?s what makes us exceptional.? It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord?s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

Vladimir V. Putin is the president of Russia.
 

Loser Araysar

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NYT piece by Putin:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/12/op...yria.html?_r=0

A Plea for Caution From Russia
By VLADIMIR V. PUTIN
MOSCOW - RECENT events surrounding Syria have prompted me to speak directly to the American people and their political leaders. It is important to do so at a time of insufficient communication between our societies.

Relations between us have passed through different stages. We stood against each other during the cold war. But we were also allies once, and defeated the Nazis together. The universal international organization - the United Nations - was then established to prevent such devastation from ever happening again.

The United Nations' founders understood that decisions affecting war and peace should happen only by consensus, and with America's consent the veto by Security Council permanent members was enshrined in the United Nations Charter. The profound wisdom of this has underpinned the stability of international relations for decades.

No one wants the United Nations to suffer the fate of the League of Nations, which collapsed because it lacked real leverage. This is possible if influential countries bypass the United Nations and take military action without Security Council authorization.

The potential strike by the United States against Syria, despite strong opposition from many countries and major political and religious leaders, including the pope, will result in more innocent victims and escalation, potentially spreading the conflict far beyond Syria's borders. A strike would increase violence and unleash a new wave of terrorism. It could undermine multilateral efforts to resolve the Iranian nuclear problem and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and further destabilize the Middle East and North Africa. It could throw the entire system of international law and order out of balance.

Syria is not witnessing a battle for democracy, but an armed conflict between government and opposition in a multireligious country. There are few champions of democracy in Syria. But there are more than enough Qaeda fighters and extremists of all stripes battling the government. The United States State Department has designated Al Nusra Front and the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, fighting with the opposition, as terrorist organizations. This internal conflict, fueled by foreign weapons supplied to the opposition, is one of the bloodiest in the world.

Mercenaries from Arab countries fighting there, and hundreds of militants from Western countries and even Russia, are an issue of our deep concern. Might they not return to our countries with experience acquired in Syria? After all, after fighting in Libya, extremists moved on to Mali. This threatens us all.

From the outset, Russia has advocated peaceful dialogue enabling Syrians to develop a compromise plan for their own future. We are not protecting the Syrian government, but international law. We need to use the United Nations Security Council and believe that preserving law and order in today's complex and turbulent world is one of the few ways to keep international relations from sliding into chaos. The law is still the law, and we must follow it whether we like it or not. Under current international law, force is permitted only in self-defense or by the decision of the Security Council. Anything else is unacceptable under the United Nations Charter and would constitute an act of aggression.

No one doubts that poison gas was used in Syria. But there is every reason to believe it was used not by the Syrian Army, but by opposition forces, to provoke intervention by their powerful foreign patrons, who would be siding with the fundamentalists. Reports that militants are preparing another attack - this time against Israel - cannot be ignored.

It is alarming that military intervention in internal conflicts in foreign countries has become commonplace for the United States. Is it in America's long-term interest? I doubt it. Millions around the world increasingly see America not as a model of democracy but as relying solely on brute force, cobbling coalitions together under the slogan "you're either with us or against us."

But force has proved ineffective and pointless. Afghanistan is reeling, and no one can say what will happen after international forces withdraw. Libya is divided into tribes and clans. In Iraq the civil war continues, with dozens killed each day. In the United States, many draw an analogy between Iraq and Syria, and ask why their government would want to repeat recent mistakes.

No matter how targeted the strikes or how sophisticated the weapons, civilian casualties are inevitable, including the elderly and children, whom the strikes are meant to protect.

The world reacts by asking: if you cannot count on international law, then you must find other ways to ensure your security. Thus a growing number of countries seek to acquire weapons of mass destruction. This is logical: if you have the bomb, no one will touch you. We are left with talk of the need to strengthen nonproliferation, when in reality this is being eroded.

We must stop using the language of force and return to the path of civilized diplomatic and political settlement.

A new opportunity to avoid military action has emerged in the past few days. The United States, Russia and all members of the international community must take advantage of the Syrian government's willingness to place its chemical arsenal under international control for subsequent destruction. Judging by the statements of President Obama, the United States sees this as an alternative to military action.

I welcome the president's interest in continuing the dialogue with Russia on Syria. We must work together to keep this hope alive, as we agreed to at the Group of 8 meeting in Lough Erne in Northern Ireland in June, and steer the discussion back toward negotiations.

If we can avoid force against Syria, this will improve the atmosphere in international affairs and strengthen mutual trust. It will be our shared success and open the door to cooperation on other critical issues.

My working and personal relationship with President Obama is marked by growing trust. I appreciate this. I carefully studied his address to the nation on Tuesday. And I would rather disagree with a case he made on American exceptionalism, stating that the United States' policy is "what makes America different. It's what makes us exceptional." It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see themselves as exceptional, whatever the motivation. There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord's blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal.

Vladimir V. Putin is the president of Russia.
TL;DR

troll_face__the_real_trolling_by_vasillium-d3g7z08.jpg
 

Strifen

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why was killing gaddafi desirable? Libya is measurably worse off in every manner after getting rid of gaddafi.

Libya one year later: a forgotten memory
Apparently Gaddafi wanted to unite African/Middle Eastern county's under a currency called the Gold Dinar. This would have been major threat to the petrodollar system which props up the value of U.S currency by tying it to the sale of oil. The western banking powers gotta keep the global debt-based ponzi scheme operational at all costs.

As usual Russian news actually sheds some truth on the real reason for the NATO bombings.



Then you have people like Hilary bragging about Gaddafi getting dragged out into the street and shot by an angry mob.

 

iannis

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So I mean I don't get it. American flops it's dick around, goes seriously aggressive, threatens to blow some shit up, Assad says, "If I give you this will you not blow me up?", America says "Yeah -- we don't really want to blow you up".

And this is America winning? Was it a contest to see if we can intimidate countries smaller than us? Because we can -- why did we need to have that contest? The only countries wecan'tintimidate through direct threats of force are China and Russia. It's not the only thing that makes them geopolitical superpowers, but it is an important component of their superpower status without which they would simply be important powers rather than superpowers.

Is that how we won? "Still got it!!". Sure, we've still got it. God and Congress both know how much we pay (in souls and cash dollars, respectively) to keep it. If you have to use it that's when your influence in the world is noticably fading. How is this a 'Murhica Moment?
 

Tuco

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No rational American is really saying we're winning. In fact we're pretty embarrassed by it. However it does mean a diplomatic end to what could've been a war, so in that respect it's a win for humanity. Not that it's any consolation to the people suffering in Syria.
 

Sebudai

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It's a "win" for the American people in the sense that we're probably not going to engage in a military conflict a majority of us oppose. The administration, however, did not "win," since its true goals likely had nothing to do with disarming Syria of its chemical weapons.
 

fanaskin

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Syria's Assad May Be Losing Control Over His Deadly Militias

As the threat of an imminent U.S. attack on Syria dims, supporters and officials in the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad are quietly worrying about another potential crisis, one that hits even closer to home. Speculation in Damascus that the chemical-weapons attack against the rebel-held suburbs of Damascus on Aug. 21 may have been initiated by rogue elements within the Syrian armed forces raises fears about Assad's overall grip on the forces fighting under him. One regime official tells TIME that what bothers him most about the long-term prognosis for Syrian stability is not the collapse of the regime, but the rise of Assad's militias, commonly referred to as shabiha. Says the official: "After this crisis, there will be a 1,000 more crises - the militia leaders. Two years ago they went from nobody to somebody with guns and power. How can we tell these shabiha to go back to being a nobody again?"

Assad's grip on the constellation of foreign and domestic militias fighting in his name is growing ever more tenuous, says the official, who spoke to TIME while visiting Beirut on condition of anonymity. The longer the war goes on, the more difficult it will be for Assad to control his own paramilitary forces, making a political solution even more difficult to achieve and setting the stage for an even nastier civil war should he fall.

It's a dilemma that dogs the aftermath of any militia-waged war, from the Balkans to Afghanistan. If the men who lead armed groups on either side of the conflict refuse to give up power in the wake of a political resolution Syria could be torn apart by militias fighting over their hard-won territories, much like Afghanistan in the early 1990s before a widespread backlash against the warlords led to the rise of the Taliban. Western governments rightly fear the rising power of antiregime militias - some of which have ties to al-Qaeda - and are taking tentative steps to rein them in. But there has been remarkably little discussion about the future of Assad's militias. "Assad is saying, let me win [the civil war] first, then I will deal with them," says the official, who estimates that the militias number in the hundreds. "But I don't see how. They could last for decades."
 

Erronius

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You don't think Putin made a deal with Assad to sell and ship more (and maybe new) heavy weapons (or some other type of support) in exchange for the chemical ones, with the bonus of making the US look even shittier in the world's eyes, while Putin looks like a hero? Would be win-win
It's very possible. One type of weapon that I think would shoehorn well with what the Syrian government is facing (opponents being difficult to dig out of urban areas, as well as difficult terrain) would be thermobaric weapons, something that IIRC Russia is one of the leaders in:

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165317102.jpg


Because Obama looks like a fool to the rest of the world, and lost a lot of the bargaining power of our military.
Naw, the bargaining power lost is Obama's own. In time the political climate will probably change, it's always in flux, but in the short-term Obama is kind of in a corner on this one. But I don't think that many people are going to be able to just laugh America off completely, and the last thing anyone wants to do is to give any new excuses for the US to turn around and drop the hammer. The Obama WH would LOVE if someone would push their luck and give them a reason to go back to their "SOMETHING MUST BE DONE" position, especially as they'd be able to say both"well we tried other options"and"...but now it's time we followed through with strikes".

The way things are turning out is probably similar to how I would have liked them to in the first place. I don't want to see us dragged into another regime change and civil war, and I'd love to see international cooperation with other UNSC members, so this isn't bad in that sense. The only thing I think that is sticking in many American's throats is that the Obama WH is trying to put some spin on this as if they were actively making a play for this all along, which isn't true - at least in the public arena. They may have had something like this on the table behind closed doors, but it's their fault that they chose to rattle their sabre as loudly as they did to begin with.

why was killing gaddafi desirable? Libya is measurably worse off in every manner after getting rid of gaddafi.
To the former half of what I quoted here, ask the Libyans. As to the latter half, why does that matter to us? Libyans have the right of self-determination, regardless of whether or not things are worse now than they were before. I honestly think the reasoning that many Americans use to argue against regime change, such as in Egypt or Libya, is selfish and ignores those people's right to tear down their government if they so choose. It's also up to them to step up and make sure that their country doesn't turn into an utter shithole as well; we can help in either event (revolution and rebuilding) but in the end it should be up to them. If you instead choose to use the reasoning that"we need to support regime X because the alternative would be worse"then you're essentially shitting all over the idea of self determination, while being guilty of artificially propping up abusive regimes. Not to mention hypocritical.

I'm sure that there are many who disagree but /shrug.
 

Loser Araysar

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lol at the name "Buratino"

that translates as "Pinnochio"
 

Erronius

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lol at the name "Buratino"

that translates as "Pinnochio"
Did Tolstoy rip off Pinocchio? I'm not well read at all in Russian literature.

The nickname Buratino matches the name of the hero of a Russian version of a Pinocchio-style tale (by Alexey Tolstoy), because of the big "nose" of the launcher.
 

Loser Araysar

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i think it was more of an inspiration rather than a straight up rip off.

i remember reading it back in USSR