Well, just popped in to CohhCarnages channel to look at it. He as a thoughts video up where he mirrors a lot of the criticisms of the SkillUp video, especially the writing. SkillUp just came into his youtube chat, and Cohh responded to him in the lines of "I never watch videos before I play a game, because they can influence my thoughts too much, but after I made the thoughts video, many people believed I had watched your video. They showed me a few clips of it and while I am not at the point of not recommending the game, I can certainly say that yeah, we mirror a lot of our opinions on the game"
Cohh is now at around the 20ish hour mark. 20 hours in from what I recall from SkillUp was when he said the combat fell apart too, not just the writing. Where it became obvious that you had experienced everything, all fights were the same (except the last 2 hours which everyone says are good).
In other words. It took 10 hours for the "nice guy" on Twitch, known for being so positive that he is often tought of a shill, to start shitting on the writing. It took another 10 to feel he had similar thoughts as the most negative review I've seen of a AAA title in recent years. And this is also while completely circeling around the "theme" that is so heavily infused in this game.
I do not think this game will have long lasting sales similarly to DA:I, which grew a lot over time. I also don't think that there will be a lot of refunds for the game, because it takes too long for the bad to set in so to speak. However, what will be interesting to see is the achivement rating, how long people play. Which will be easy to see considering there is an achivement per chapter. 77% have completed part 1, 46% so far part 3, 24% part 4 and down to 2% for part 8 (though that is understandable as it's not been out long). But in 4 months, how many will have part 14 unlocked?
My guess, this will hit gamepass sooner than later. Sales will also happen early, perhaps even as early as the chirstmas steam sale. AAA titles that sell usually don't go on sale more than 10-20% in the first 6+ months.
Second guess, it will be a financial failure, but there will be a media blitz calling the audience the problem, not the game. "Look at the reviews, the game is great, but the gamer audience is horrible, but we will not be deterred from writing stories that matter!"