Greece - A New Hope

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Running Dog_sl

shitlord
1,199
3
Working on the principle that if you owe the troika ?10m they own you, but if you owe them ?240bn then you own them, the new Greek government chose to call the troika's bluff.

Which is why the Greek debt crisis is now left permanently on the brink. The troika is now in so deep it can't afford a Greek default; nor can it risk a Greek exit (Grexit) from the euro in case other countries - Portugal and Italy are prime suspects - follow suit leaving the eurozone to collapse in a pile of worthless dominoes. But the Greeks are also in too deep to risk a default: were they to leave the euro and return to the drachma then the economy would become one of a third world nation.

...It's set up for a lose-lose situation, as no sooner does the troika pump in more cash, than the Greek people withdraw it. Better to have your cash under the mattress in euros, than leaving it in the bank where it could be turned into worthless drachmas at any moment. No matter who blinks first, everyone loses.
The Greek debt crisis - digested read | World news | The Guardian
 

Hoss

Make America's Team Great Again
<Gold Donor>
27,654
16,100
I'm not familiar with 'troika', so I looked it up. It's Russian for 3. So is that quote insinuating the Russian mob, or the Russian trilateral commission or something like that?
 

Northerner

N00b
921
9
Didn't look very far I suppose. Wikipedia:
"The term troika has been widely used in Greece and Cyprus (Greek: ??????),[1][2] Ireland,[3] Portugal[4] and Spain[5] to refer to the presence of the European Commission, European Central Bank, and International Monetary Fund in these countries since 2010 and the financial measures that these institutions have taken."
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
1,199
3
After both sides seemed on the verge of an agreement earlier in the week, the will-they-won't-they dance goes on. It looks like no-one is capable of making a decision, or no-one wants to be the guy who pulls the trigger

Greek gov't briefing Tsipras is unhappy lenders not accepting some measures, says this is unprecedented, questions if they want deal
Nick Malkoutzis (@NickMalkoutzis) | Twitter

According to FT Brussels bureau chief Peter Spiegel, Greece's creditors are unhappy that Athens is backtracking on parts of the deal submitted early on Monday
Peter Spiegel (@SpiegelPeter) | Twitter

*edit* Here's the creditors re-write of the Greek proposals on pensions. The amount of red ink tells you a lot

rrr_img_100899.jpg
 

Kedwyn

Silver Squire
3,915
80
Well all those put options expire at some point they might not give a shit anymore and are ready for Greece to fall. I say that only half way joking.
 

Frenzied Wombat

Potato del Grande
14,730
31,803
Anybody that has visited Greece will realize that they're fucked because culturally they make Italians look productive in comparison. The entire Greek business/work culture is based on fucking off and under the table dealings. A Greek will do anything to avoid paying taxes.
 

khorum

Murder Apologist
24,338
81,363
Yep.

Basically every economist on the Troika wants assurances that the mentality that thought shit like Athens Olympics was a good idea no longer exists in Greece. After January's elections and the emerging left-nationalism amongst Greek voters that is absolutely not the case.

Greece will need to export its way out the hole they've dug---everyone acknowledges that one way or the other---but this latest package raises taxes on large corporations by over 3% without making cuts on tariff or substantial cuts in union pensions. So how exactly are they going to export anything when the manufacturing sector won't be around?
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
1,199
3
Anybody that has visited Greece will realize that they're fucked because culturally they make Italians look productive in comparison. The entire Greek business/work culture is based on fucking off and under the table dealings. A Greek will do anything to avoid paying taxes.
Here's a little fact I read today: Greece has been in default on its foreign debt for almost half it's existence. Makes you wonder why anyone would lend it money...

I've read back-of-the-envelope kind of studies that say Greece will take up to 200 years to pay off it's debts, assuming by some miracle it doesn't accumulate any new ones. As that isn't going to happen, a chunk of debt will have to be written off, but the ECB, the IMF and the Germans don't want to hear it.

The bottom line to all this is that economically it stopped making sense for Greece to be in the Euro a long time ago, but the politicians simply can't accept it leaving.
 

Dyvim

Bronze Knight of the Realm
1,420
195
I've read back-of-the-envelope kind of studies that say Greece will take up to 200 years to pay off it's debts, assuming by some miracle it doesn't accumulate any new ones. As that isn't going to happen, a chunk of debt will have to be written off, but the ECB, the IMF and the Germans don't want to hear it.
Of course they dont want to hear it, because then they would have to admit that they have and keep pouring their hard earned tax payers money into that dark hole, just to bail out banks once again and keep the rich oligarchy in power.
So they keep lying about it to let the riot-able stuff theyve done run off its curse, till the vast majority is watching another sports event and wont give a shit anymore.
 

iannis

Musty Nester
31,351
17,657
Beg, Borrow, or Steal.

What happens when the greeks can no longer even pretend to prop themselves up? That would also be a reason that they don't want to hear it. I don't know what happens, but the best possible case is that a lot of greeks starve to death. And it'll probably be much worse than that.

Edit: Which, I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just thinking that there are probably multiple good reasons and multiple bad reasons all swirling around the shitstorm of hairy greek assfuckery.
 

Running Dog_sl

shitlord
1,199
3
This is now developing from a two way argument into a three way argument. The Greeks and the Troika (Euro Commission, Euro Bank and IMF) are still at odds, but now some European finance ministers are disagreeing with both of them. The next repayment is due Tuesday.
 

khorum

Murder Apologist
24,338
81,363
It's possible the Greeks vote to accept the troikas terms. Unlikely considering their recent voting record, but it's possible.

Syriza and their coalition seem to be campaigning against it. So basically this referendum is whether Greece wakes up to reality or leaves the EU and eventually get to where pensioners are buying cat steaks for two trillion drachmas a kilo.
 

khorum

Murder Apologist
24,338
81,363
Out of curiousity what outcome would you LIKE to see for Greece?

If they stay in, there's no way they can mortgage their entire economy to dig out of their debt. If they default they'll have a nightmare decade but they'll come out of it with their own currency and a means to be a competitive export market in a wealthy region.

I've actually followed the Guardian's assessment, but so much of it is rage against a heartless system that noone ever really bothers talking about a practically future for everyday Greeks.
 

Itzena_sl

shitlord
4,609
6
Greece is fucked. Their choice right now is between default+return to drachma+areallyshitty decade or two, or austerity breaking the back of their country and Golden Dawn taking over while Germany and the IMF stand around saying "Well we never expectedthisto happen!!!!11!"

Doesn't change the fact that austerity was the Wrong Sodding Idea at the Wrong Sodding Time.
 

Kedwyn

Silver Squire
3,915
80
This is really simple actually. Regardless, austerity for their past is coming. They can either accept it and stay on the euro which will give them a significantly softer landing but the pain will last longer.

They can float their own currency, spend 10 years or so of absolutely brutal inflation and depression to have to make the same cuts and changes but be able to control their own monetary policy and fate as things improve.


Either way, austerity is coming. The question is do you want to go through it on the euro or go it alone. Given Greece is a shit hole I'd wager they lose less by staying with the euro.
 

Vinen

God is dead
2,791
497
Hoping to have another trip to Greece and to potentially buy some property on the islands. This should help further this goal kekekekeeke.
 

khorum

Murder Apologist
24,338
81,363
They refuse to sell sovereign territory actually. I'm not sure if that's against the Lisbon Treaty or it's a case of nationalism. It's prolly both.

But yeah, they could sell an island as a sovereign purchase (IE: permanently) to Apple or Google or some conglomerate for 20 billion or something. Apple has over twenty times that amount in cash that they can't repatriate anyway. Sovereign sales used to happen a lot---in fact it used to be THE way governments would mitigate war debts. We got Louisiana and Alaska that way.