- 17,781
- 25,897
Greece - A New Hope
- Thread starter Flight
- Start date
-
Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
chthonic-anemos
bitchute.com/video/EvyOjOORbg5l/
- 8,606
- 27,290
How are the other EURO bankfires coming along? Spanish property still worth less than its construction?
- Ireland seems to be on the road to recovery, not least because it does a lot of business with the US and with the UK (who aren't tied in to the Euro currency) whose economies are growing relatively quickly.
- Portugal and Spain are growing modestly but have a way to go before they get back to their previous outputs. Unemployment is an issue. Other economies are in danger of slipping in the other direction though, like Finland.
- The French and Italian economies are pretty stagnant, although both are being helped by low oil prices.
- In the Euro currency area, basically only Germany has been consistently successful in the last couple of years, but they seem to be getting tired of helping everyone else out financially.
The real danger from Greece defaulting is that the markets will take it into their heads that one of these other countries might go the same way, and once that happens the people with real money will start testing the will of the ECB to hold everything together.
fanaskin
Well known agitator
- 56,028
- 138,797
Entirely possible that the EU cuts deals with the other weak links to ensure the Union doesn't dissolve (save the bigger boys) and boots the complete welfare case out of the EU just to prove a point. Assuming Greece keeps doubling down as they have been.
This has dragged on a lot longer than anyone expected but there's now just 13 days left before the Greek bailout program ends and the country misses repaying the IMF.
Considering that the Greek PM has just accused the IMF of "criminal responsibility" for the crisis while denying it's the fault of the Greeks at all ("The fixation on cuts ... is most likely part of a political plan ... to humiliate an entire people that has suffered in the past five years through no fault of its own"), things don't look good.
The Greek people are tasking the sensible route of withdrawing all their money from the banks while they still can, taking 400 million Euros in cash out on Monday alone.
Considering that the Greek PM has just accused the IMF of "criminal responsibility" for the crisis while denying it's the fault of the Greeks at all ("The fixation on cuts ... is most likely part of a political plan ... to humiliate an entire people that has suffered in the past five years through no fault of its own"), things don't look good.
The Greek people are tasking the sensible route of withdrawing all their money from the banks while they still can, taking 400 million Euros in cash out on Monday alone.
iannis
Musty Nester
- 31,351
- 17,657
I obviously don't know the particulars of it, but how does Greece remain in the Union when they are so obviously creating a bank run with the shared currency?
So we're about to see the process in which countries can be forcibly and legally ejected from the EU? Or does Germany/France just eat it?
Or is that the entire question?
So we're about to see the process in which countries can be forcibly and legally ejected from the EU? Or does Germany/France just eat it?
Or is that the entire question?
They would be forced out of using the Euro currency rather than the EU itself. As has been mentioned before the real risk is that the financial markets would see a Greek Euro exit as a green flag to go after other troubled Euro countries like Spain, and once the finance sharks get a whiff of blood they are very hard to stop. A lot of European banks will also lose out big time as Greece would write off its debts.
There's also a big political cost to the EU. The mantra has always been "ever closer union"; there was no provision made when the Euro was created for anyone to leave it, no mechanisms were in place. This would be the first(?) backward step for the EU and would set an uncomfortable precedent.
The European Central bank has been propping up the Greek banks for months to the tune of 82 billion Euros. Later today they decide whether to keep on doing that, which they almost certainly will since if they pulled the plug now it would bring everything to a climax before the politicians get to have yet another meeting about the crisis.
Dyvim
Bronze Knight of the Realm
- 1,420
- 195
They cant be ejected, there is simply no legal procedure to do so. They could only deliberatly quit on their own (ofc they wont) . And thus they keep kinda blackmailing the entire eurozone to bail out their debts.
If the ECB stops handing money to the Greek banks they will literally run out of money very quickly. At that point the Greek government would have to start issuing it's own currency. If they did, they would most likely try to create a parallel currency, effectively "Euro IOUs", so that at some point in the future they can simply transfer back to using real Euros.
Legally the ECB is only supposed to give out money to banks that are solvent, as a short term measure when they have liquidity problems. I don't think anyone really believes the Greek banks are solvent, but the ECB has continued to hand the cash over because of the above - it would force the Greeks to use their own currency and now you're into a very strange situation where a country has left the Euro even though there's no legal mechanism for it to do so. Another reason is of course the ECB will likely lose a chunk of the 80 billion Euros it has already handed over - but the longer this drags on, the more money they have to hand out, and the bigger the loss might get.
More on:
What Happens if Greece Misses Payments? - Real Time Economics - WSJ
iannis
Musty Nester
- 31,351
- 17,657
Well, I'm not thinking that Merkel and whoever the French guy is are gonna meet and write the greeks a letter "You ARE the weakest link!"
More like a stepwise thing.
Step 0-0.9) Shit that's been happening.
1) Revoke access to the shared currency
2) Use tarriffs and hostile trade measures in an increasingly authoritarian attempt to bring the policies of the country into line and repeat step 0-0.9
3) Formally end all favored status and revoke all privileges "until the situation stabilizes".
Which would leave you with a country which is technically still in the EU (and could be normalized very quickly), but for all effects is not a member. No shared currency, no trade status, no political obligations. All they'd have is their name on a list.
More like a stepwise thing.
Step 0-0.9) Shit that's been happening.
1) Revoke access to the shared currency
2) Use tarriffs and hostile trade measures in an increasingly authoritarian attempt to bring the policies of the country into line and repeat step 0-0.9
3) Formally end all favored status and revoke all privileges "until the situation stabilizes".
Which would leave you with a country which is technically still in the EU (and could be normalized very quickly), but for all effects is not a member. No shared currency, no trade status, no political obligations. All they'd have is their name on a list.
khorum
Murder Apologist
- 24,338
- 81,363
They're literally proving Margaret Thatcher right. Greece's central bank is running out of other people's money just to keeping ladling out those welfare state handouts.
The hangups that Tsipras refuses to budge on? Raising the government retirement age and making cuts to their PREPOSTEROUS pension payouts----which is what Syriza specifically ran against and got elected on.
All these pundits like to dance around the fact that Syriza is an avowed socialist party but the GREEKS spoke through their votes. They're not centre-left. They're not Social-Democrats. They're straight up marxist-leninists and the Greeks voted them in back in January despite knowing that the EU was poised to shit in their mouth unless pare their shit down to reality.
If the Greeks had ever been serious about making the systemic reforms they needed to turn shit around the elections wouldn't have been the landslide that it was.
The hangups that Tsipras refuses to budge on? Raising the government retirement age and making cuts to their PREPOSTEROUS pension payouts----which is what Syriza specifically ran against and got elected on.
All these pundits like to dance around the fact that Syriza is an avowed socialist party but the GREEKS spoke through their votes. They're not centre-left. They're not Social-Democrats. They're straight up marxist-leninists and the Greeks voted them in back in January despite knowing that the EU was poised to shit in their mouth unless pare their shit down to reality.
If the Greeks had ever been serious about making the systemic reforms they needed to turn shit around the elections wouldn't have been the landslide that it was.
The game can only go on for so long and they'll either have to accept the austerity changes or remove themselves from the EU. Once their banks run out of money they'll be forced one way or the other.
If they leave the EU they will float their new / old currency and it will be virtually worthless and inflation will set in over night. Anyone dumb enough to not horde Euros or dollars will be broke. They may even try to ban the use of foreign currency. Likely a barter economy would set in. Either way it will be a shit show.
Or
They can agree to make the changes and maybe negotiate a phase in period.
Remaining in the Euro might mean low to even negative growth for time but they won't ever hit rock bottom. So the pain will be much less but over a longer period of time.
If they leave the Euro they will hit rock bottom, will still have to make the changes to their system since it's fucking broken and will have some serious short term problems that they are far more severe than anyone probably realizes.
Either way, reforms are coming. Might as well not completely fuck yourself and stay in the Euro zone.
If they leave the EU they will float their new / old currency and it will be virtually worthless and inflation will set in over night. Anyone dumb enough to not horde Euros or dollars will be broke. They may even try to ban the use of foreign currency. Likely a barter economy would set in. Either way it will be a shit show.
Or
They can agree to make the changes and maybe negotiate a phase in period.
Remaining in the Euro might mean low to even negative growth for time but they won't ever hit rock bottom. So the pain will be much less but over a longer period of time.
If they leave the Euro they will hit rock bottom, will still have to make the changes to their system since it's fucking broken and will have some serious short term problems that they are far more severe than anyone probably realizes.
Either way, reforms are coming. Might as well not completely fuck yourself and stay in the Euro zone.
As a proportion of it's GDP, Greece spends more on pensions than anyone else in the EU. However, they also have one of the highest proportions of people over 65 in the EU; if you look at how much they spend per pensioner, Greece actually is no worse (or better) than average.
The problem isn't that they are generous with pensions, it's that they can't afford the average pensions they have, and with unemployment being so high, 50% of Greek households depend on pensions for their income. That's a real social problem to have, and that's why people voted the way they did. The country is a mess, pensions are just the safety net.
Everyone is talking up the chances of a last minute deal today after the Greeks sent a revised proposal to the EU last night. Unfortunately, they sent the wrong document...
Peter Spiegel on Twitter:
Mike Bird (@Birdyword) | Twitter
Their rolls swelled significantly when it was 57 years old. They are simply paying for old mistakes. Social Security would be completely fucked as well if we allowed the baby boomers to grab full pensions at 57 instead of 66.
This is a demographic issue caused by WW2 and the baby boom. It's a short term (relatively) problem that will solve itself as they die off. As for our own pension solvency, if we would only go a decade or so without a cool trillion dollar of killing people we'd have plenty of money to fix the issue and other things.
This is a demographic issue caused by WW2 and the baby boom. It's a short term (relatively) problem that will solve itself as they die off. As for our own pension solvency, if we would only go a decade or so without a cool trillion dollar of killing people we'd have plenty of money to fix the issue and other things.
Dyvim
Bronze Knight of the Realm
- 1,420
- 195
They just need to make it mandatory law that everyone recieving pension / welfare has to cross streets on red lights as well.
On a more serious note they wont make it out of the red zone trying to cut back and rise taxation on the 99% while leaving tax/money evasions and shit for the 1% in place.
If a left as it gets government wont do it, noone will, ever.
On a more serious note they wont make it out of the red zone trying to cut back and rise taxation on the 99% while leaving tax/money evasions and shit for the 1% in place.
If a left as it gets government wont do it, noone will, ever.