Investing General Discussion

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Creslin

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Big Phoenix said:
Dont get ahead of yourself;

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injuries like lost limbs or injured like a falling ceiling tile hit them? Iran has been toothless in this war so far I think because Russia is clear with them they want to wrap up Ukraine before any real Middle East escalation.
Mist said:
You mean biggest crash since the Ukraine invasion maybe. I'd consider that post-covid.

Anyway, this seems more like deep profit-taking after a sustained irrational melt up to me.
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Ya that’s true and the mini banking crisis last year.
 
Arden

Arden

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Creslin said:
Iran has been toothless in this war so far I think because Russia is clear with them they want to wrap up Ukraine before any real Middle East escalation.
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Iran has 100% been toothless so far, for sure. This time feels different though. Maybe it won't be- but it feels that way.
 
Zog

Zog

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I don't think we're done.

The entire yen carry trade did not just reposition itself in a single trading day.

You also have to assume the jcb has their currency under control and they won't hike again or do more intervention.

From what I've gathered most mega firms don't even have their risk numbers yet to even know if they need to.

For those who don't understand what the yen carry trade is ill try to explain simply.

The yen has been losing value for a very long time, to offset this, they buy us denominated assets, mostly bonds and stocks. When the jcb hiked rates, this usd/jpy trade started going against them. To not lose shitloads of money, they will need to do the reverse.

It really depends how the yen performs in the coming days whether we have a financial crisis on our hands or we have the biggest rally this year.
 
C

Creslin

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Zog said:
I don't think we're done.

The entire yen carry trade did not just reposition itself in a single trading day.

You also have to assume the jcb has their currency under control and they won't hike again or do more intervention.

From what I've gathered most mega firms don't even have their risk numbers yet to even know if they need to.

For those who don't understand what the yen carry trade is ill try to explain simply.

The yen has been losing value for a very long time, to offset this, they buy us denominated assets, mostly bonds and stocks. When the jcb hiked rates, this usd/jpy trade started going against them. To not lose shitloads of money, they will need to do the reverse.

It really depends how the yen performs in the coming days whether we have a financial crisis on our hands or we have the biggest rally this year.
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The carry trade didn’t unravel itself in a day. Unless it did. Remember traders are slaves to memory and the black Monday crash was front and center in anyone doing this trades mind. They all tried to front run it imo and way oversold and now we get the reverse and a huge rally.

sure the actual implications of the .25% rate hike by the nips bank needs to be digested over a longer time but feels safe to say it doesn’t justify a flash crash of 20+%.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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Today was literally a nightmare. Wake up the next day and it's all back to where it was when you went to sleep.

Asia markets exploding to the upside
 
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Rangoth

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I loved today! I had M puts that’s went up 100% and a long SPY 505 P that gave a 40% gain. I’m gonna let the next rally happen and buy a bunch more SPY puts when the price goes back down. I’ll have to review new charts but my guess would be nov/Dec timeframe.

I post my lame trades in the shitposting thread so I don’t clutter this one with garbage. This seems to be a more macro thread.
 
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C

Creslin

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Mist said:
Sounds like a bad idea.
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Two months is reasonable imo. This is volatile times. I sold off like 3% of my stocks today to get some cash to hedge against whatever happens. Prolly around 3 months of expenses. Sure I’ll prolly look back and be like damn my 25k would a been 30k if I held but it also has a chance it coulda gone to 15k and it is a recessions and I need the money to not lose the house.

now panicking and selling 3 years of expenses seems unwise so it’s all about scale.
 
Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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PLTR -2.5% on the day. +12% after hours. I'm kinda digging this "markets in turmoil* thing.

They double beat earnings and raised guidance.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Creslin said:
Two months is reasonable imo. This is volatile times. I sold off like 3% of my stocks today to get some cash to hedge against whatever happens. Prolly around 3 months of expenses. Sure I’ll prolly look back and be like damn my 25k would a been 30k if I held but it also has a chance it coulda gone to 15k and it is a recessions and I need the money to not lose the house.

now panicking and selling 3 years of expenses seems unwise so it’s all about scale.
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read blazins post and look at large index fund charts. We bounced off support. While anything can happen it is likely we actually have a decent rally and continue pushing up until another staircase/test of support levels. If it ripped right through I’d be doom and gloom sell as well but it didn’t.

I really recommend keeping a few basic charts up or listening to people here on advice for macro trends. It’s been very informative for me.
 
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