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Creslin

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Well we are retesting the Monday close at the moment. Assuming you mean the Monday low which is still about 2.5% away on the nasdaq?
 
Blazin

Blazin

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Creslin said:
Well we are retesting the Monday close at the moment. Assuming you mean the Monday low which is still about 2.5% away on the nasdaq?
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Tuesday low

1723057471428.png
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Blazin said:
So close I only would have gone with 519 because of that AH low yesterday evening at that level. Would have been a fun quick in and out. Could just tell was going to make a stand there. I don't think I'm touching this any further today.
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Yes, think I was getting too technical with a macro TL. This was going to be an add for an average up from my low buys on the 5th. Sitting currently around 500shrs SPY. I am giving it a longer leash to shake out for a bounce and resume of trend. Its just going to take a bit to calm the nerves for the masses. I can be patient.
 
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Blazin

Blazin

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Jysin said:
Yes, think I was getting too technical with a macro TL. This was going to be an add for an average up from my low buys on the 5th. Sitting currently around 500shrs SPY. I am giving it a longer leash to shake out for a bounce and resume of trend. Its just going to take a bit to calm the nerves for the masses. I can be patient.
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In for $220k on S&P still, trying to be patient with it. part of protecting QQQ gain is to give this more time. My base read is that we still get a rally to the 50d but we just may need a little more time to make that run. S&P has room to play with , QQQ is in a more vulnerable position for how this week closes
 
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Jysin

Jysin

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Got my fill right into the technical level I was shooting for. Lets see how we hold up overnight. 650 shares now. About 1/3 sized.
 
Blazin

Blazin

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1723069166748.png

I wish we weren't humping this upper part of channel and I could be more balls to the wall bullish, channel has guided me for going 11 years now that better money is made down in it than playing above it. So far any attempt by the S&P to move above it has been given back. I'm not that worried about the exact pt they are just guide lines for me that help to put in very long secular trends in perspective. Further zoomed out:
1723069541013.png

Because I think the secular trend is only a little past half it's lifespan can still make money at the top of the channel over years. Sometimes I like to look at how far we could drop and not even be a threat to this trend. I'm pretty confident at the end of this bull we are going to start a steeper path that could last several years and 100% of those gains will be lost in the bear that follows.

We lost about the last 5 years of the 82-00 secular bull run in the subsequent bear market, I don't think we are quite in the giveback range yet but it could be soonish from a decades long perspective.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

Sanrith Descartes

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We havent checked in ARKK lately. It's only down about 25% ytd. Kathie killing it.
 
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C

Creslin

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Jim gets shit but his advice is usually not actually horrifically bad. Kathy is like insanely bad. Wsb levels of holding losers to long and selling winners instantly.
 
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Rangoth

Rangoth

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Blazin said:
View attachment 540208
I wish we weren't humping this upper part of channel and I could be more balls to the wall bullish, channel has guided me for going 11 years now that better money is made down in it than playing above it. So far any attempt by the S&P to move above it has been given back. I'm not that worried about the exact pt they are just guide lines for me that help to put in very long secular trends in perspective. Further zoomed out:
View attachment 540211
Because I think the secular trend is only a little past half it's lifespan can still make money at the top of the channel over years. Sometimes I like to look at how far we could drop and not even be a threat to this trend. I'm pretty confident at the end of this bull we are going to start a steeper path that could last several years and 100% of those gains will be lost in the bear that follows.

We lost about the last 5 years of the 82-00 secular bull run in the subsequent bear market, I don't think we are quite in the giveback range yet but it could be soonish from a decades long perspective.
Click to expand...

I love that you always put big picture and the macro of it all in perspective. It also connects perfectly with how you trade and view the market.

just a few questions:

1.) if you don’t mind sharing what is your annual return compared to S&P or just in general? Do you shoot for dollars or percent or is it just a hobby? Basically what are your goals
2.) I may not be reading the chart or colors correctly but you marked X% over 200D but the chart puts the marker way above X% of the 200D. What am I missing?
 
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