The_Black_Log Foler
PalsCo CEO - Stock Pals | Pantheon Pals
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My advisor fully exited my ARKK position at last months rebalance.
lil life update on my advisor managed portfolio for yall. Was a green exit but mediocre at best.
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
lil life update on my advisor managed portfolio for yall. Was a green exit but mediocre at best.
Blazin
Creative Title
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1. I shoot for dollars as I still have never found a merchant who will let me buy things for percents. I have made living full time doing this since 2015. I started trading in 1999
2. The chart is weekly chart not daily
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Rangoth
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Thanks for the response and both answer make sense. It’s a good perspective to consider.
I would absolutely quit my job if I could make what I make now(plus health insurance, a contribution to 401k, etc) but I am not there yet. You raise a good point though, if I magically had 5 million in my account my brain doesn’t think spend. It thinks roll SPY for 200k a year and never worry again.
for others, I posted about this in the retard investing thread but it was my biggest emotional/mental hurdle to get over. I am fairly conservative with risk so my problem was that I’d be up 10% which is awesome, but on a 10-20k bet that’s 1-2k which is less than a single paycheck(not bragging but stating for reference).
So my brain tells me, don’t settle for that, you’ll make it next week!
it took me a lot of training and time to realize that 10% was great. Take it and move on.
I would absolutely quit my job if I could make what I make now(plus health insurance, a contribution to 401k, etc) but I am not there yet. You raise a good point though, if I magically had 5 million in my account my brain doesn’t think spend. It thinks roll SPY for 200k a year and never worry again.
for others, I posted about this in the retard investing thread but it was my biggest emotional/mental hurdle to get over. I am fairly conservative with risk so my problem was that I’d be up 10% which is awesome, but on a 10-20k bet that’s 1-2k which is less than a single paycheck(not bragging but stating for reference).
So my brain tells me, don’t settle for that, you’ll make it next week!
it took me a lot of training and time to realize that 10% was great. Take it and move on.
Sanrith Descartes
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I know some of you follow the chip sector like
Big Phoenix
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Does AMD really have the growth to justify a PE 3x that of NVDA?
Big Phoenix
.Does AMD really have the growth to justify a PE 3x that of NVDA?
Cad
scientia potentia est
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The answer to 1 is a bit evasive though. Who cares what your dollars are because you could be making $10/trade or $10M/trade.
What percent of your trading portfolio did you make in 2023, for example? VTI made 26.05% in 2023, for example. What'd you make?
None of us will know if you're lying so you don't need to worry.
Big Phoenix
Pronouns: zie/zhem/zer
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Maybe? AMD should have a once in a generation opportunity to steal lots of Intel business.I know some of you follow the chip sector like
Does AMD really have the growth to justify a PE 3x that of NVDA?
Rod-138
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I don’t know if I disagree with Blazin’s chart analysis, but the stats on black swan events say we’ve been fucked harder than most average generations. (Maybe we deserve it bc we’ve also had great growth.) my point is that you don’t get there without some fairly serious shit going down and while those things historically always happen, they have not been as common until recently. (2000-current)
2001 was a tech bust / 911 combo. 2008 collapse was a total loss in confidence in the entire financial system more or less, so that’s a tier 3 black swan along with Covid, the fear of the entire world potentially being out of business.
Obviously, these things happen and will happen again and again, because humans naturally push the boundaries with financial opportunity and ultimately fuck it up, but it’s also possible we learn a little something and avoid the full blown event.
Tier 2 is probably a war or natural disaster while T1 is a normal fear of market conditions.
The US has lots of issues and you can make up all kinds of scenarios that these things go down, so the point is valid on the loss potential because it’s definitely real, but if you stretch it out far enough, then you get a few less ‘black swans’ and hopefully that’s closer to the truth than the last 20 years.
While I type this I think of all the ways we could lose total confidence in the financial system again and I lose the little gusto I had
2001 was a tech bust / 911 combo. 2008 collapse was a total loss in confidence in the entire financial system more or less, so that’s a tier 3 black swan along with Covid, the fear of the entire world potentially being out of business.
Obviously, these things happen and will happen again and again, because humans naturally push the boundaries with financial opportunity and ultimately fuck it up, but it’s also possible we learn a little something and avoid the full blown event.
Tier 2 is probably a war or natural disaster while T1 is a normal fear of market conditions.
The US has lots of issues and you can make up all kinds of scenarios that these things go down, so the point is valid on the loss potential because it’s definitely real, but if you stretch it out far enough, then you get a few less ‘black swans’ and hopefully that’s closer to the truth than the last 20 years.
While I type this I think of all the ways we could lose total confidence in the financial system again and I lose the little gusto I had
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Correspondent / Stock Pals CEO
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Jysin
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08:30*(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 233K V 240KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1,875M V 1.87ME - Source TradeTheNews.com
Moglyzoke Moogleman
Not here
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Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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The data doesn't actually support this. Maybe it just feels abnormal, but we're basically within the average range.
This is one of my favorite financial websites:
CAGR of the Stock Market: Annualized Returns of the S&P 500
www.moneychimp.com
Pick any date range as your start from the 90's through 00's and we're either below average or slightly above.
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Jysin
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As someone who has been LT investing since ~2000, I can confirm I have seen my share of scares, but simple DCA into those positions has also allowed me to take advantage of the rips back to highs. I don't feel hard done by whatsoever. I think those that are most vocal about it have either sat on the sidelines or avoided investing altogether and markets have ripped right on by. There is always money to be made.
Gravel
situation (retiring amidst some market volatility) definitely has room for caution. For the rest of us with longer time horizons, you would be best to just keep plugging away at DCA and forget you have the IRA / 401k.
Gravel
situation (retiring amidst some market volatility) definitely has room for caution. For the rest of us with longer time horizons, you would be best to just keep plugging away at DCA and forget you have the IRA / 401k.- 3
Sanrith Descartes
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Futures jumping on this report but I don't see it as "great". Continuing claims not falling.
Yes could easily be a rip and fade like yesterday.
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Jysin
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I look at it in context of days and days worth of bad news and relentless emotional selling. Any little reprieve of "not as bad as expected" news (jobless #s) can give the market a chance to breathe and reassess. Is it "the bottom"? Who knows? But we are overextended to the downside on the daily and right into some big support. This is why I was buying more near the close last night (After Monday's low buys).
Gotta keep an eye on the situation though. I wont let this turn against me. If we want to break overnight lows, I'd imagine a wave more panic to get us to Monday lows.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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I don't think in percent I don't track them, I don't care. That's the truth of it do what you will. That is not something I've seen in full time traders I've spoken with (
Jysin
do you set your goals by percent?) People who make their living using other people's money, now those people talk about it all the time because they are competing with your other options. So if I've given you wrong impression, I'm not interested in managing your money Cad . Now it's a legitimate question to say "Why don't you think in percent" , for me its an idea that sounds good in theory but doesn't hold up the nuance of RL at least for me. All I can speak to is what I do, I don't really spend my time thinking about what others should be doing. Every year I set a dollar goal that meets my families needs and wants within the bounds of our risk tolerance. Let's say I have a good spring then take the entire summer off how would you have me handle that?
Priority #1 protect capital
Priority #2 Seek a good return for the risk taken
How do you determine the denominator? If I choose to not invest cash is that being calculated or not, you don't measure your VTI performance by including your net worth not in it. For the period I am in the market I'm pretty confident that I'm well ahead of it.
I did calculate % the best I could and posted to this forum my percent return for almost 20 years of returns, its in the thread but again that will include periods where I simply wasn't putting capital in harms way.
If I assume you aren't just being an asshole I'd guess your angle is "Why not just invest in the market and be done?" I think I'd have that perspective with a salary (Current Wage Income) and to me that makes sense. I have achieved some of my major life goals, I have the home the land I want, my wife is happy. I don't want for much else. I make the amount of money I need and I do it as efficiently as I can. The beta of the market is not something I'm willing to expose my entire livelihood to. I manage risk, I've made a few million, is it some super impressive % return compared to the market, I don't know I doubt it, the market has put up some pretty impressive numbers over the period. I have made it by just consistently grinding it out. I have very rarely been red. That's my win.
And I don't think I have ever given any other advice to others besides dollar cost avg into a broad index. I'm pretty confident in my ability to make a good beta adjusted return and that's what I'll continue to focus on.
My assets are far messier than you looking at a 401k which is usually rather straightforward. I use capital to buy SPY I use it to buy a tractor, sometimes I'm saving it to buy land etc (and thus obviously won't expose it to a potential 50% decline) It would be like asking why don't you include your Au pair cost against your VTI performance.
I made $154,592.46 last year, should I include dividends/interest? I don't know you didn't lay out the rules of this contest I'm in. If I include passive gain I made $191,275. I had and used capital varying from $800k to $1100 to do that, I had two red months ($20,251.76) Sept and ($7,811.91) Oct. My best month was Nov $51,269.76. Now how much did I use to make that Nov gain, surprisingly little and to me that's the managing risk part. Probably 10% return on invested capital that month. Waiting for a play and taking it.
We have had this discussion so many times I'm starting to really feel like an old man repeating myself. You're probably wealthier than me and if you still have a healthy income it makes more sense to not fear the impact of a significant drawdown and the loss of time for it to recover but that does not work for me at this time. What could I do if I was a horse out of the barn? I honestly don't know, I do wonder at times and would enjoy the challenge of that but it's not my reality. Building my homestead sucked about a million of my liquid capital if I can get back to a safe buffer I may get to enjoy a period down the line where I can more cleanly just invest a sum of money for pure performance with less capital preservation concerns.
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