Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Investing General Discussion
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Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Blazin
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Major events come and go, I believe demographics are the hidden hand that is more impactful over the long trend than the events. Markets have cycles because they are a reflection of our populace and THEIR cycles. We really have to fight the , "this time it's different" what's happening to us now always feel more impactful to us than past events we didn't live through. Humans are the consistent variable. Secular trends have existed since modern economics started. The expansion periods and consolidation periods. We are going to have another lost decade the why of it doesn't really matter, it will happen and it will feel like utter shit. There is still money to be made it just requires a different outlook to the game.
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Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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Wait a minute,
Combined with the rising unemployment rate (4.1 >> 4.3) this tells me that the job market is actually worse than either metric suggests. Unemployment rising, and jobless claims falling tells me that people been far longer out of work than the government wants to admit, and that their benefits are being exhausted.
Kinda retarded for the market to jump on this news. Its like last week's unemployment numbers were completely memory holed.
Am I wrong here?
Blazin
Creative Title
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The numbers are very messy right now and they are dubious at the best of times. There was a lot of temp unemployment from the storm. I don't think the market is focused so much on what employment situation is versus how they feel the Fed feels about it. All this shit will be adjusted multiple times, the real numbers are the ones we get 5-6 months later. I think people want there to be weakness but not "concerning" weakness, just enough to get what they want, which is their cheap money punch bowl back without a recession.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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So I’m not a good short term investor. BUT. Should I just go cash now and wait for the crash and hop back in?
Im not being emotional. I’m reading Blazin posts and listening to my sister.
My sis and bro and law have sold four homes at the top of the market for the last 20 years. She has an uncanny ability to sense it. Last night she said, “It’s time to sell our house again.” I asked why and she said, “I feel it in my gut!”.
Then there’s Blazin’s perspective and the fact that we’ve been running hot for a while. I’m not trying to time anything. I just don’t want to feel the pain.
Im not being emotional. I’m reading Blazin posts and listening to my sister.
My sis and bro and law have sold four homes at the top of the market for the last 20 years. She has an uncanny ability to sense it. Last night she said, “It’s time to sell our house again.” I asked why and she said, “I feel it in my gut!”.
Then there’s Blazin’s perspective and the fact that we’ve been running hot for a while. I’m not trying to time anything. I just don’t want to feel the pain.
Sanrith Descartes
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I don't think in percent I don't track them, I don't care. That's the truth of it do what you will. That is not something I've seen in full time traders I've spoken with (Jysin do you set your goals by percent?) People who make their living using other people's money, now those people talk about it all the time because they are competing with your other options. So if I've given you wrong impression, I'm not interested in managing your money Cad
Now it's a legitimate question to say "Why don't you think in percent" , for me its an idea that sounds good in theory but doesn't hold up the nuance of RL at least for me. All I can speak to is what I do, I don't really spend my time thinking about what others should be doing. Every year I set a dollar goal that meets my families needs and wants within the bounds of our risk tolerance. Let's say I have a good spring then take the entire summer off how would you have me handle that?
As you say this subject comes up now and again, though not as often as "my jboots feel slower". I am less a $$ guy and more a percent guy. As I have said lots of times, there is no one path to winning in investing. Lots of methods work for lots of people. There are so many variables that it allows for different strategies. I believe what came out of
Cad
's post is two different methodologies at play. People in the percent camp want things normalized across numerous disparate items. You can't manage what you cant measure is an old mantra. For you, its more of a P&L thing. Working capital, budgets and cash targets to meet those budgets. You 100% hit in on target when you look at those investing for retirement and those investing to pay their bills each month. If you need $XXX dollars to meet your needs for the year, it doesn't matter your gain %, what matters is the dollar amount gain relative to your goals. It is something you mention regularly, your $$ goal for the year. For those socking money into their 401k, its about percent of alpha because that camp is looking to maximize return across various investing instruments. Percent is an easy mechanism that is normalized across all the choices. SPY gets me 9.75%, ARKK gets me -25%. Choice is simple.
The one big plus I see to a percent-centric discussion is it allows all the participants to be able to view it in their own terms. The 25 year old guy with $5k in his account can view it in terms that apply to him as well as the guy with $500k in his account. The adoption of fractional investing was a godsend to smaller investors. They aren't limited to low priced investments so the strats that higher $$ investors use can still be viable strats to low dollar investors by just sliding the decimal a place or two.
Sanrith Descartes
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"IF" you truly don't want to experience a drop, I wouldn't go to cash. Go to short dated bonds (best yield and they allow liquidity on the roll). This is what Buffett has been doing. I'm not advising you to do it, but Buffett seems to feel like your sister. If the market rips higher for the next 12 months it was a bad strategy. If the market dives lower the next 12 months it was a great strategy. There is no way to know until 12 months from now.
Blazin
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As you say this subject comes up now and again, though not as often as "my jboots feel slower". I am less a $$ guy and more a percent guy. As I have said lots of times, there is no one path to winning in investing. Lots of methods work for lots of people. There are so many variables that it allows for different strategies. I believe what came out of
You 100% hit in on target when you look at those investing for retirement and those investing to pay their bills each month. If you need $XXX dollars to meet your needs for the year, it doesn't matter your gain %, what matters is the dollar amount gain relative to your goals. It is something you mention regularly, your $$ goal for the year. For those socking money into their 401k, its about percent of alpha because that camp is looking to maximize return across various investing instruments. Percent is an easy mechanism that is normalized across all the choices. SPY gets me 9.75%, ARKK gets me -25%. Choice is simple.
The one big plus I see to a percent-centric discussion is it allows all the participants to be able to view it in their own terms. The 25 year old guy with $5k in his account can view it in terms that apply to him as well as the guy with $500k in his account. The adoption of fractional investing was a godsend to smaller investors. They aren't limited to low priced investments so the strats that higher $$ investors use can still be viable strats to low dollar investors by just sliding the decimal a place or two.
Good post, but I would disagree with the last paragraph. All this talk of money and returns, there is really only one resource and that is TIME. We use money to help with time. It's hard for people to get this but its not hard to make a lot of money with a little. WHen you've taken TIME to make money you aren't getting any more added to your ledger. A 25 yr old making 10-20 even 100% on 5k doesn't mean much he can just go get a job and outstrip those numbers by 10 fold. He has tons of time and earnings potential in front of him. If your annual returns are just a fraction of your annual revenue then they may matter but that is not at all the same thing as when the table is turned.
A young person shouldn't waste their TIME on % returns they should maximize their income for their TIME and live below their means and save. THe greatest investor to ever live can't compete with a young guy just going out and getting even a basic job and saving. My % return whatever it is, is a reflection of money management not skill limit. You're comparing people who are purposefully limiting risk (about every wealthy individual on the planet) with someone who is likely not even risking their monthly salary.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Blazin
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Liking it good broad participation., interest rates climbing. Watching bonds and looking and order back in on QQQ
Sanrith Descartes
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I 100% agree, but it wasn't what I was alluding to in that paragraph. I was only thinking in terms of maximizing investment strategies. The 25-year old should stop working because he made 100% return in a year. That would be ludicrous of him. I meant he shouldn't be in bonds (of any percentage of his portfolio) because the percent gain is inferior to something that carries more risk because he has the time to ride out downturns and as you say time is the most important variable for him due to compounding returns.
If Blazin says I see an opportunity in the QQQ, the guy the 25-year old should be understanding that he can follow in that trade using fractional investing. You buying 200 or 2000 shares of QQQ should be different from him buying 10. He can put his capital to work following you and reaps the same gain (not in $$ but in percent).
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Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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was sitting with wife and dog on couch last night thinking should I log on and buy in AH on that nice dip but I didn't feel like getting up
Anyway back in QQQ 530 shares
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Sanrith Descartes
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Moglyzoke Moogleman
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Sold for around B/E so as to reduce risk. Unbagged myself from 10 shares SPY $540. Can always just buy lower after all.
Gravel
Mr. Poopybutthole
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Excellent post.
And on the opposite side, I want to point out that people need to figure out when enough is enough. Lots of people will keep working hoping to eek out just a bit more in their portfolio so they can feel more comfortable. What they're missing is that each year at the end of your career is worth more and more as you get closer to death (and ironically, each year they work extra is another year less of needing that money).
I struggled to get this one through to my mom, and actually still do with her being 2 years into retirement. Like, they want to build a house but they keep saying it's contingent on how Tesla does. I'm sitting here thinking, it's probably going to take you all 1.5 - 2 years to get it built once you decide to move forward, and you're already in your 60's. How much longer are you really going to wait to build this thing? And they already have more money than they'll ever spend.
You also need to consider your physical condition in those years. The earlier ones are worth way more than the later ones. You're probably not going to go do all the physical things you want in your 60's or 70's. I know a couple who retired early in their 50's and they already can't do the hiking they want as their bodies can't handle it anymore. My wife and I are in our early to mid 40's, and each year I can feel more shit breaking. Do we give our best years to an employer, or roll the dice and make the most of them ourselves (by shit posting on FoH all day)?
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Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I find the
Blazin
explanation quite helpful actually because it is where I am striving to be. I don't have my house paid off yet, but other than that all I want is to make what I make now, which would be in the range of what he posted his annual profits were. I don't care if it's 1 trade or 100 trades or dividends. The challenge is to do that with calculated(minimal) risk.
I just don't have the capital at the moment to safely do that without increasing my risk or decreasing my gains. But I could absolutely envision a world where I make less plays, lower risk, to hit my targets. But I would much rather spend my "work hours" doing research and calculating a safe multi-week or month trade to make my salary and then spending my time on hobbies and family. I already have my day to day finances under control so as mentioned in many threads around FoH, the thing I am buying is my time from the 40-60 hour a week job. Not bragging rights on % gains or overall profit.
Blazin
explanation quite helpful actually because it is where I am striving to be. I don't have my house paid off yet, but other than that all I want is to make what I make now, which would be in the range of what he posted his annual profits were. I don't care if it's 1 trade or 100 trades or dividends. The challenge is to do that with calculated(minimal) risk.I just don't have the capital at the moment to safely do that without increasing my risk or decreasing my gains. But I could absolutely envision a world where I make less plays, lower risk, to hit my targets. But I would much rather spend my "work hours" doing research and calculating a safe multi-week or month trade to make my salary and then spending my time on hobbies and family. I already have my day to day finances under control so as mentioned in many threads around FoH, the thing I am buying is my time from the 40-60 hour a week job. Not bragging rights on % gains or overall profit.