Tmac
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Investing General Discussion
- Thread starter Furious
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
Go here and give us your nominations!Who's been the biggest Asshat in the last year? Give us your worst ones!
Asshat Foler
2024 FoH Asshat
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I haven’t sold yet bro. I’m holding this puppy another 4-6 years prob. They will be the primary competition for spacex, among other things. I’m a big believer in Sir Peter Beck.
Sanrith Descartes
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Traders today pricing in a 45% chance of a 50 basis pt cut instead of 25 basis pts. Up from 15% yesterday. Crazy.
Blazin
Creative Title
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I'm going with 25 but lower confidence in what they are going to do since before Janet. I'm not sure they have decided. Its either going to be 25 with a lot of clear projection about the next one. Or its 50 and we are "data dependent"
If we can get a spike into the close I'm contemplating selling. I know I'm letting goal and YTD progress have a lot of weight on that instead of just the price action but this has been a nice year for me and I'm well ahead of my projection for year end. I'm obsessively goal oriented and it's ahrd for me to justify going for more. THe counter to that is to make it while you can because you never know what kind of year we are going to have next.
I want that ATH and it's starting to look not int he cards for today.
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Sanrith Descartes
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I see zero economic reason to cut by 50 pts. Only political ones. I think it "should" be 25, but we will see.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Well I see a tactical reason, that I mentioned. 50 allows you to go back to "neutral" stop talking about cuts, data dependent, wait and see. I think that is the stance they want to be on. You give em 25 and you are going to immediately be in the position of when is second breakfast.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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Sanrith Descartes
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Who is it good for though? 50bps but a messaging reset to 'well we are back to wait and see no future cuts planned for the immediate future unless the data warrants' it isn't exactly in line with the markets expectation of 100bps by year end and you could see a pullback on that kind of talk.
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Sanrith Descartes
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From a political point of view, incumbent desperately wants the market to rocket now to the election. An unwarranted 50 basis pt cut means that market will run and they only have to fake inflation numbers for Oct. By the time the inflation's comes roaring back they either lost the WH or they won it for 4 years and don't give a shit.
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Oh ya that I get I just mean that a 50bps as a big splash first cut but language that says we are back to slow and data driven while we watch things for a few months and no promises might not give the market reaction they want. 25bps and a wink and a promise of another 25 in a month is probably more what they want.
50 bps cut and then saying hey thats all we are probably doing for the year unless data suggests we need to do more is actually in my mind the least political option for the fed.
Jysin
Ahn'Qiraj Raider
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This guy is such a fucking baller. Jesus Jensun Christ.
Blazin
I have scaled most out. Like a couple weeks ago when we hit this topping area, I am happy to swallow my pride and buy higher if we breakout and confirm a hold. This is the 5th weekly chart touch near the highs on (SPY). This week's action was pretty damn bullish. That insane V on Wednesday put the bears on the ropes. My personal bias though, I think we are going to need some macro to confirm a move either way. I can see us chopping around for a while. We've got another month until earnings start rolling again. All of that said, the most likely outcome seems up in the short term.
Blazin
I have scaled most out. Like a couple weeks ago when we hit this topping area, I am happy to swallow my pride and buy higher if we breakout and confirm a hold. This is the 5th weekly chart touch near the highs on (SPY). This week's action was pretty damn bullish. That insane V on Wednesday put the bears on the ropes. My personal bias though, I think we are going to need some macro to confirm a move either way. I can see us chopping around for a while. We've got another month until earnings start rolling again. All of that said, the most likely outcome seems up in the short term.- 1
Asshat Foler
2024 FoH Asshat
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I don’t know anything about them. From what I saw that stock moved with hype. I have a friend who works in space which is why I feel comfortable with RKLB - I’m able to get some insight into that portion of the space market.
ASTS I don’t really know much about. The article makes it seem intriguing but that’s always the point of these articles. If I have time I may deep dive the tech and see if it’s actually got potential.
On the surface I think there’s a lot of potential to capture regional demographics that currently have no/spotty cellular broadband. From my experience in Africa I’ve seen how SMS based payment/banking systems like mpesa are widely adopted. Smart phones aren’t a rarity over there - lots of cheap Chinese phones to be had and most people have them.
I’d be curious to do research into what geographical regions currently don’t have broadband and what providers that serve those greater regions are currently doing to expand that. There’s a lot of money to be made connecting people to the internet which is why I imagine google was trying to bring google fiber to places like Kampala and Zuck was working on his broadband UAV/balloon thing. Maybe
Araysar
would have a better idea of how valuable it is to connect people as I think the majority of revenue and profit for companies with interest is going to be in advertising and eventually unlocking geographical regions to online retail.I worry about investing in anything where the main customer base is very rural. Don't know anything about ASTS and if that is the case with them I would just personally stay away from anything with such a small poor customer base.
Loser Araysar
Chief Russia Reporter. Stock Pals CEO. Head of AI.
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I’d be curious to do research into what geographical regions currently don’t have broadband and what providers that serve those greater regions are currently doing to expand that. There’s a lot of money to be made connecting people to the internet which is why I imagine google was trying to bring google fiber to places like Kampala and Zuck was working on his broadband UAV/balloon thing. Maybe
Its complicated. Google has absolute dominance (90%+ of market share) outside of Russia (Yandex) and China (Baidu), but proportion of their revenue by region hasn't changed much in last decade.
You would think that revenue from Asia and Africa should be exploding over past 10 years, even if you account for Baidu in Asia and realize that Africa has many internet users as North America now but that doesnt seem to be the case.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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There's just not enough time for any of this shit to matter for the election.
If they were making a political decision they would have knocked basis points off heading into the height of summer, which is what I expected them to do. The fact that they didn't means the Fed is acting more independently than I thought.
Sanrith Descartes
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No they want the market running as people are filling out absentee/early ballots. Its too far out to predict the market for election day but early voting begins in a few weeks.