I just have a hard time believing there are a meaningful number of votes movable by short term market manipulation. "Fuck the commies!!! But wait... my 401k is up a couple thousand this month. What do I do???"
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Guest, it's time once again for the massively important and exciting FoH Asshat Tournament!
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Mist
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It's sheer fallacy to think that people outside of threads like these are checking the market movements daily. And the ones that are that heavily into watching markets have already made up their minds on who they're voting for.
Normal, persuadable people are checking their retirement balances on occasion, and that does factor into their votes, but at not the micro level you're operating at.
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Arden
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It's sheer fallacy to think that people outside of threads like these are checking the market movements daily. And the ones that are that heavily into watching markets have already made up their minds on who they're voting for.
Normal, persuadable people are checking their retirement balances on occasion, and that does factor into their votes, but at not the micro level you're operating at.
They aren't expecting the average Joe to check the markets daily, but they ARE expecting the average Joe to tune into cable news (or youtube/facebook/whatever) and listen to general commentary about "the economy." If they can create a positive buzz about the economy, it will definitely benefit them (to an extent) on election day. Phrases like "new all-time market highs" tend to cut through the noise and reach even the most casual, least engaged investor.
Both parties are willing to juice the economy in election cycles to help them win. This is standard stuff at this point.
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Sanrith Descartes
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You are looking at a macro national level and are correct in that view. Drill down a bit to things like US House races. 17 were decided by less than 10k votes in 2022. 3 were decided by less than 500 votes. The current house makeup is a difference of 9 seats with each seat flipping moving the bar 2 places (one party up and one part down). So a flip of 5 seats changes control of the US House of Representatives. Look at the five seats with the smallest margin of victory. That isn't a lot of votes. We aren't talking needing to influence millions of voters, just about a net of 6,000.
State and local races, are a whole lot tighter than these races with a much smaller voter pool (especially at the county/city level) to influence.
Sanrith Descartes
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They aren't "checking the markets". They will be fed the positive news for Kamala by every single media organization in the US on an hourly basis. Every single one.
It's sheer fallacy to think that people outside of threads like these are checking the market movements daily. And the ones that are that heavily into watching markets have already made up their minds on who they're voting for.
Normal, persuadable people are checking their retirement balances on occasion, and that does factor into their votes, but at not the micro level you're operating at.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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You're still missing the point. The time to get people pumped about the economy was during the summer, during back-to-school buying season, etc. Not the week of the election. People have short memories but not THAT short.
The most midwit thing you can do is assume other people's media diet and thought processes match your own.
The most midwit thing you can do is assume other people's media diet and thought processes match your own.
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I get that, just don't see it making a difference even on that scale. There are easier and more reliable ways to get a short term publicity pop than manipulate the Fed.
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Sanrith Descartes
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Lol, but that makes the assumption its either or. My assumption is they will do them all.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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My point is that if they were going to manipulate the fed, it would've happened sooner. They wouldn't have let us get to the brink of recession, through six distinct waves of major tech layoffs, then drop a few basis points after people have already started voting and almost everyone has already made up their minds.
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Arden
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It did happen sooner...
The labor market added 818,000 fewer jobs than earlier reported. Here's what experts say that means.
New government data shows the job market was weaker than earlier reported. That could pave the way to a September rate cut.
www.cbsnews.com
It also happened later. And it will happen in the future too.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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That's literally the opposite of manipulating the Fed. If BLS had been putting out more accurate numbers, the Fed might've acted sooner instead of arguably too late to influence the election.It did happen sooner...
The labor market added 818,000 fewer jobs than earlier reported. Here's what experts say that means.
New government data shows the job market was weaker than earlier reported. That could pave the way to a September rate cut.
It also happened later. And it will happen in the future too.
You guys have your chickens and eggs all backwards.
Data is far downstream from the actual lives of voters. Most people's view of the economy is not primarily informed by what the official numbers say, it's how their personal economic situation is doing.
Arden
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You're assuming the government wanted the Fed to act sooner. They didn't. They've been playing a balancing act w inflation. Not saying what they did was smart or not (I don't have all the data) but it's absolutely manipulation.
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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Yes, entities act on each other in the real world. That stands aside from my thesis.
I think what we've seen is that they put taming inflation over pumping the economy heading into the election. Had their objectives been reversed in priority, the order of events would've been significantly different. That's all I'm saying.
Falstaff
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Trump should try saying something positive maybe they'll report on it!
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Sanrith Descartes
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Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Mist
REEEEeyore
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Sanrith Descartes
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I hear if you own Day 1 shares of PLTR you are exempted from their surveillance systems as a perk.
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