Investing General Discussion

Mist · Tuesday at 8:58 AM

Aldarion said:
I know you're generally bullish as a rule.

Well that's because the charts always go up and to the right when you zoom out more than a year or two.

Creslin · Tuesday at 9:00 AM

A lot is going to come down to the commentary and markets inferring things based on the cuts. The markets want cuts but cuts for the right reason.

I think the most bullish scenario for stocks is a 50bps cut with messaging that says it is likely the only one for a few months blah blah data driven. It gives the market a big cut and tells the market the fed is not overly worried about the overall economy.

Blazin · Tuesday at 9:06 AM

Aldarion said:
I dont freakin know man, thats why I'm reading what other people write about it.

I may have missed your take. I know you're generally bullish as a rule. But if its 0.25 what do the markets do? If its 0.5 what do they do?

My observation about how nobody seems willing to make this prediction was not directed at you, btw. Just an observation on investing writers in general. Do you disagree with the observation?

I don't buy into that kind of thinking in the first place. It's complete folly. So yesterday it was .50 and that was bullish now this morning its making a sharp turn to 0.25 AND that's bullish. Why do you want to tie the markets movement to a particular data point?

So if its 25 and we rally big this week then people will say .50 would have been the bad one, OR MAYBE it was going to rally regardless. Sanrith knows to troll me sometimes with the "market did this because of this" twitter posts. No matter how much evidence is mounted showing the stupidity of it humans can't help looking for a SIMPLE cause and effect in a COMPLEX system.

Aldarion · Tuesday at 9:16 AM

I posed a pretty simple and inoffensive question, the question most traders are discussing. In response I get "stonks go up" (Mist) and "markets are complex" (Blazin).

Its cool, I get that its not an easy call to make. I don't know the answer either.

Sanrith Descartes · Tuesday at 9:25 AM

Aldarion said:
Every site that discusses investing loves to predict "will it be 0.25 or 0.5" but no one's willing to predict the only thing that matters: how the market will respond

But the day after the cut we're gonna see approximately one billion articles patiently explaining with a sensible chuckle why it was obviously going to do what it did

Actually you can to a degree. Market has begun to price in a 50 pt cut. At this point a 25 cut would mostly likely be seen as disappointing from a price perspective and I would expect the market to react negatively. Similar to mortgage rates. This rate cut has effectively already been priced in by brokers on mortgages.

Sanrith Descartes · Tuesday at 9:26 AM

Blazin 's spirit animal:

Blazin · Tuesday at 9:28 AM

Aldarion said:
Its cool, I get that its not an easy call to make. I don't know the answer either.

It's unnecessary call to make and it's a mistake to even put that much weight on an answer. It's not hard, it's stupid.

and btw not the slightest bit offended by the question jsut trying to help you stop thinking that way.

Sanrith Descartes · Tuesday at 9:29 AM

Sanrith Descartes · Tuesday at 9:31 AM

All-Time Highs!!!

Blazin · Tuesday at 9:57 AM

Sanrith Descartes said:
Blazin 's spirit animal:

I definitely don't have a bull spirit animal, if I have one at a all its a tortoise. Weight of the evidence. Open mind, respond to the evidence in hand. This has been another important lesson that for many will just be completely missed. I was wanting to be bearish. I posted it, I took action. I continued to look at the what was occurring and bought because despite my concern of older evidence, newer evidence was mounting for more upside. I would have absolutely loved more downside. People too often take a position then seek to reinforce it. Day at a time, no team jersey necessary.

On this mornings action, not crazy about a gap up ATH hoping we pull back today and fill that. It's a piece of evidence that we made a new ATH without the fed decision. Lots of improving charts. I continue to focus on SPY 570 I'll worry about beyond that when we get there. The behavior bulls want to see is a movement away from this level. Traders are going to be tripping over themselves throwing the word Trap around non stop the rest of the week. It's a dangerous time with the size of OPEX this week.

Sanrith Descartes · Tuesday at 10:05 AM

Blazin said:
I definitely don't have a bull spirit animal, if I have one at a all its a tortoise. Weight of the evidence. Open mind, respond to the evidence in hand. This has been another important lesson that for many will just be completely missed. I was wanting to be bearish. I posted it, I took action. I continued to look at the what was occurring and bought because despite my concern of older evidence, newer evidence was mounting for more upside. I would have absolutely loved more downside. People too often take a position then seek to reinforce it. Day at a time, no team jersey necessary.

On this mornings action, not crazy about a gap up ATH hoping we pull back today and fill that. It's a piece of evidence that we made a new ATH without the fed decision. Lots of improving charts. I continue to focus on SPY 570 I'll worry about beyond that when we get there. The behavior bulls want to see is a movement away from this level. Traders are going to be tripping over themselves throwing the word Trap around non stop the rest of the week. It's a dangerous time with the size of OPEX this week.

I set you up for a nice comical response and you give me this.

Creslin · Tuesday at 12:25 PM

bulls wtf (I know this is meaningless movement prior to fedspeak)

karma · Tuesday at 12:26 PM

well, we filled the gap down!

Lightning Lord Rule · Tuesday at 12:33 PM

Blazin said:
It's unnecessary call to make and it's a mistake to even put that much weight on an answer. It's not hard, it's stupid.

Me waiting for

Blazin to finally make a call:

Foler · 2024-09-18T11:38:22-0400

Curveball - these cyber trucks will be the robotaxis

Mist · 2024-09-18T12:30:14-0400

RE: Crowdstrike.

Don't.

Microsoft is taking antimalware and anticheat out of the kernel. This will make third party products that rely on kernel layer access much less effective.

Possible that CRWD could make it up in other services, but more possible that they don't.

Sanrith Descartes · 2024-09-18T13:51:59-0400

Sanrith Descartes · 2024-09-18T14:01:24-0400

50 basis points. 11-1 vote.

Sad.

Blazin · 2024-09-18T14:01:29-0400

50 cut

Jysin · 2024-09-18T14:02:12-0400

50bp now.

Dot plot 100bp this year, 100 next

*(US) FOMC SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS (SEP) FOR SEPT: RAISES MEDIAN FORECAST PROJECTION TO 100 BPS OF RATE CUTS IN 2024 (PRIOR: 25BPS) - Source TradeTheNews.com

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