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Sanrith Descartes

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Sanrith can load up some "target retirement" fund returns versus the S&P so we can all have a good chuckle.


VTIVX the target 2045 Fund vs the SPY in a 10-year chart.

1737140798981.png
 
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Captain Suave

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Well one thing I will say, is look at the performance of SPY in the 2000s. 2-3% growth. What's to say that doesn't happen again?

Nothing, but whatever does that to the US economy is going to be worse for international for the reasons Blazin lists and more. Take the returns that are happening now. You'll be able to rebalance if something dramatically changes; there will be months and years of signaling.

China: More communists, Japan/Skorea: declining population death spirals.

China has a much worse death spiral coming. They're looking at 40%+ population contraction over the next 50-75 years. Thx one child policy.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Well one thing I will say, is look at the performance of SPY in the 2000s. 2-3% growth. What's to say that doesn't happen again?
Nothing. This is part of Mr. Markets crazy game.
Also, its easy to cherry pick years to support any conclusion. So the lifetime average return on the S&P over 100+ years is about 9.75%. Use that.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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China has a much worse death spiral coming. They're looking at 40%+ population contraction over the next 50-75 years. Thx one child policy.
If they didn't have nukes, Trump could slap them with 500% import tariffs, remove most favored nation trade status and crater their economy back to Ming Dynasty.
 
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tugofpeace

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Dang. I have 20% of my retirement portfolio in VTMNX. Now have to dump all of that into an an index that tracks SPY at all time highs.. lmao. My brokerage doesn't even have VTI which is what I would've wanted.
 

Blazin

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Dang. I have 20% of my retirement portfolio in VTMNX. Now have to dump all of that into an an index that tracks SPY at all time highs.. lmao. My brokerage doesn't even have VTI which is what I would've wanted.
I'm managing money for someone in this situation with a target retirement fund. I'm dollar cost averaging it over time and hoping for a nice move in bonds or a decline in S&P to help ease the move. Didn't want to just wait for the perfect time to do it as that could continue to be costly.
 

tugofpeace

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I'm managing money for someone in this situation with a target retirement fund. I'm dollar cost averaging it over time and hoping for a nice move in bonds or a decline in S&P to help ease the move. Didn't want to just wait for the perfect time to do it as that could continue to be costly.

what's your timeframe to move it 100%? I'm thinking to take 9-12 months and whatever isn't moved immediately, put it into a VMFXX to get some yield

I remember it was suggested to dump it all immediately into an index a while back because time in market > timing the market, but I rather DCA.. who knows what happens early in Trumps presidency
 

Blazin

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what's your timeframe to move it 100%? I'm thinking to take 9-12 months and whatever isn't moved immediately, put it into a VMFXX to get some yield

I remember it was suggested to dump it all immediately into an index a while back because time in market > timing the market, but I rather DCA.. who knows what happens early in Trumps presidency
if no opportunity presented, 1yr but that isn't going to happen. For example during this weakness this month I moved 5x the normal weakly amount, bigger the opportunity the more I'll accelerate it.
 

Gravel

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International exposure is absolute shit, the EU is a train wreck of socialist regulatory BS, China: More communists, Japan/Skorea: declining population death spirals.

Vanguard and it's misguided conventional wisdom may now be the single largest destroyer of wealth in a generation and they refuse to just admit they completely f'd it up. The variables that make international shit aren't just going to flip next month, next quarter or next year, it's where capital goes to die.

Sanrith can load up some "target retirement" fund returns versus the S&P so we can all have a good chuckle.
One of the best points made in the Stock Series by JL Collins that I always recommend is that pretty much every large cap company in the US is also international. McDonald's, Coca Cola, Apple, Caterpillar, Exxon; they're all selling shit overseas.

Yeah, you miss out on the Sony's and Nestles. Who fucking cares? You don't need to own every company on the planet. If you want international exposure, you're already getting it with an S&P 500 index fund.
 
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Sanrith Descartes

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One of the best points made in the Stock Series by JL Collins that I always recommend is that pretty much every large cap company in the US is also international. McDonald's, Coca Cola, Apple, Caterpillar, Exxon; they're all selling shit overseas.

Yeah, you miss out on the Sony's and Nestles. Who fucking cares? You don't need to own every company on the planet. If you want international exposure, you're already getting it with an S&P 500 index fund.
The only Intl company I would think about grabbing is Samsung. They have their little paws in everything on the planet.
 

Cad

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The only Intl company I would think about grabbing is Samsung. They have their little paws in everything on the planet.
Am I reading this wrong or is Samsung down 12% over the past 5 years when the market generally is up ~75%?

 

Furry

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This is exactly what I have done ever since I started reading this thread. No reason to do anything else in a 401k from my perspective.
I've said it before I'm like 60% S&P, 25% tech, 12% small cap/dividends/market wide, 3% set my money on fire however I feel like.

I generally don't move money between funds more than once every 5 years, so It's more tech heavy than this, but this is generally how it starts off. Even my set my money on fire is mostly just some stocks of companies I like, so it really hasn't done bad either. My biggest account by far doesn't even let you invest in stocks or options at all.

Investing in bonds or targeted retirement just feels gross. I have a loan against that 401k which is down to like 10k left, and your collatoral gets held as treasuries, so I guess I do technically own a small share of that too. Technically I would have been a small fraction of 1% further ahead if I just took out the loan, but I've never paid interest on anything other than my house and I'm not about to start now.
 

Sanrith Descartes

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Am I reading this wrong or is Samsung down 12% over the past 5 years when the market generally is up ~75%?

Nope, that looks right. Good catch. I had no idea they cratered second half of last year. I guess it's a good thing I don't own it.
 

Kiroy

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International exposure is absolute shit, the EU is a train wreck of socialist regulatory BS, China: More communists, Japan/Skorea: declining population death spirals.

Vanguard and it's misguided conventional wisdom may now be the single largest destroyer of wealth in a generation and they refuse to just admit they completely f'd it up. The variables that make international shit aren't just going to flip next month, next quarter or next year, it's where capital goes to die.

Sanrith can load up some "target retirement" fund returns versus the S&P so we can all have a good chuckle.

Reason number 73 i’m doing the tiresome full business and personal account switch from vanguard to fidelity.
 
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