Pan'Theon: Rise' of th'e Fal'Len - #1 Thread in MMO

Vandyn · Jan 20, 2014

I'm just thinking, I don't see how they could release the game, even at an early phase without some sort of crafting element. What would drive the economy then?

TrollfaceDeux · Jan 20, 2014

fanboyism is all you need for your economy.

arallu · Jan 20, 2014

Some lore about Terminus posted:http://www.lorelibrary.com/

Whidon · Jan 20, 2014

Zoeii_sl said:
If you look at the daily chart on Kicktraq for Pathfinder Online, you will find that Pantheon is trending very similarly. Almost every Kickstarter I have followed goes through lulls in the middle with big spikes at the end. It is scary to watch though. I think Pantheon has a fighting chance at getting funded.

Pathfinder Online: A Fantasy Sandbox MMO by Goblinworks Inc. :: Kicktraq

Pantheon: Rise of the Fallen by Visionary Realms, Inc. :: Kicktraq

Do people appreciate that this KS has a strong chance of failure at this point? Yes pathfinder got insane funding on it's last day, but it's nuts to rely on that. If this does not do better in the "valley" area we are in there is a good chance we will not be in range to even do a crazy last day like that. As of right now todays numbers and yesterdays are awful when you factor in and they should serve as a good basis for what is going to happen going forward given the trends of other KS.

Pantheon got 70 backers yesterday and is trending for about 70-80 backers today.... it's avg backing is only $125.

Pantheon needs to get 15k a day avg during the period from now till it's last few days to have a real shot. Even then It would still need a massive amount 200k in it's last 3 days to get funded.

At $125 per backer it needs 120 backers per day to get 15k. if it could get to $150 backer avg it would only need 100. Based on the numbers so far I feel this is not going to be easy.

But there is a few ways to really increase it's chance. Yes putting up more and better info on the game will help, but I feel these things will add more backing $

1. Still needs better and more high end tiers. Relying way way to much on sub 1k tiers.

2. Put in SWAG! people love to see they are getting a ton of crap for their backing, it makes it seem like a good deal. just look at all the shit in the CU and Torment put in all the tiers.I know it sucks to deal with so much physical stuff but this is something that could really turn shit around fast.

3. Figure out someway to get another 30-50 backers a day avg. media, Viral campaigning whatever, not my area.

Do these things and pantheon won't need guys donating insane amounts on the last day to have a shot.

Edit: i know the overall numbers on Sunday don't look terrible at 16k, but only 70 backers is worrying. Also the having the two 10k then losing them has possibly messed up the numbers a bit.

Lithose · Jan 20, 2014

Vandyn_sl said:
I'm just thinking, I don't see how they could release the game, even at an early phase without some sort of crafting element. What would drive the economy then?

It would just be a resource economy. If normal item drops are not BoP, then those are the things that will drive the economy. Much like in EQ, items will be seen and traded, as if they were a resource. No need for crafting in an economy like that.

Big Flex · Jan 20, 2014

arallu_sl said:
Some lore about Terminus posted:http://www.lorelibrary.com/

ogres confirmed?

having read the lore library entry twice.. I dig it

Jimbolini · Jan 20, 2014

Whidon1_sl said:
Do people appreciate that this KS has a strong chance of failure at this point? Yes pathfinder got insane funding on it's last day, but it's nuts to rely on that and if this does not do better in the "valley" area we are in there is a good chance we will not be in range to even do a crazy last day like that. As of right now todays numbers and yesterdays are awful and they should serve as a good basis for what is going to happen going forward given the trends of other KS.

Pantheon got 70 backers yesterday and is trending for about 70-80 backers today.... it's avg backing is only $125.

Pantheon needs to get 15k a day avg during the period from now till it's last few days to have a real shot. Even then It would still need a massive amount 200k in it's last 3 days to get funded.

At $125 per backer it needs 120 backers per day to get 15k. if it could get to $150 backer avg it would only need 100. Based on the numbers so far I feel this is not going to be easy.

But there is a few ways to really increase it's chance. Yes putting up more and better info on the game will help, but I feel these things will add more backing $

1. Still needs better and more high end tiers. Relying way way to much on sub 1k tiers.

2. Put in SWAG! people love to see they are getting a ton of crap for their backing, it makes it seem like a good deal. just look at all the shit in the CU and Torment put in all the tiers.I know it sucks to deal with so much physical stuff but this is something that could really turn shit around fast.

3. Figure out someway to get another 30-50 backers a day avg. media, Viral campaigning whatever, not my area.

Do these things and pantheon won't need guys donating insane amounts on the last day to have a shot.

Slightly disagree on a few points here...but need 5 more days or so of data to really get a better picture. (IMO)

Vandyn · Jan 20, 2014

Whidon1_sl said:
Do people appreciate that this KS has a strong chance of failure at this point? Yes pathfinder got insane funding on it's last day, but it's nuts to rely on that and if this does not do better in the "valley" area we are in there is a good chance we will not be in range to even do a crazy last day like that. As of right now todays numbers and yesterdays are awful and they should serve as a good basis for what is going to happen going forward given the trends of other KS.

Pantheon got 70 backers yesterday and is trending for about 70-80 backers today.... it's avg backing is only $125.

Pantheon needs to get 15k a day avg during the period from now till it's last few days to have a real shot. Even then It would still need a massive amount 200k in it's last 3 days to get funded.

At $125 per backer it needs 120 backers per day to get 15k. if it could get to $150 backer avg it would only need 100. Based on the numbers so far I feel this is not going to be easy.

But there is a few ways to really increase it's chance. Yes putting up more and better info on the game will help, but I feel these things will add more backing $

1. Still needs better and more high end tiers. Relying way way to much on sub 1k tiers.

2. Put in SWAG! people love to see they are getting a ton of crap for their backing, it makes it seem like a good deal. just look at all the shit in the CU and Torment put in all the tiers.I know it sucks to deal with so much physical stuff but this is something that could really turn shit around fast.

3. Figure out someway to get another 30-50 backers a day avg. media, Viral campaigning whatever, not my area.

Do these things and pantheon won't need guys donating insane amounts on the last day to have a shot.

This is right on. The number of backers per day is really the telling point on how this is going. Because there hasn't been a massive surge early on (you can blame the bad presentation for that), the project is now forced to have at least 125 backers per day. It is not trending that way. The reason why you need a higher number of backers per day is because they are shelling out alpha access at 45, something they cannot change at this point. If you go simply by a 100 pledge average (again, most have no desire to go that high since alpha is only at 45), the project would need almost 7k more backers, which means about 200 backers a day.

Niedar_sl · Jan 20, 2014

I am fairly sure that this kickstarter is going to fail and I am actually fine with that as I would rather it fail and for them to work on the game and campaign a little bit more and then come back to try again with a more professional campaign with real information. I agree with the above stuff mentioned except I don't think physical swag is really a great idea unless used sparingly, it has ruined many kickstarters before with the cost growing and eating into any money they made from the kickstarter to begin with.

Khane · Jan 20, 2014

Niedar_sl said:
I am fairly sure that this kickstarter is going to fail and I am actually fine with that as I would rather it fail and for them to work on the game and campaign a little bit more and then come back to try again with a more professional campaign with real information. I agree with the above stuff mentioned except I don't think physical swag is really a great idea unless used sparingly, it has ruined many kickstarters before with the cost growing and eating into any money they made from the kickstarter to begin with.

Physical swag is an opportunity cost. Also, it would be pretty silly to not build the cost of manufacturing said swag into the donation price. It very much does increase interest since you know exactly what you will be getting (or at least exactly what a portion of what you are getting is) and it's tangible.

Lysis · Jan 20, 2014

Vandyn_sl said:
This is right on. The number of backers per day is really the telling point on how this is going. Because there hasn't been a massive surge early on (you can blame the bad presentation for that), the project is now forced to have at least 125 backers per day. It is not trending that way. The reason why you need a higher number of backers per day is because they are shelling out alpha access at 45, something they cannot change at this point. If you go simply by a 100 pledge average (again, most have no desire to go that high since alpha is only at 45), the project would need almost 7k more backers, which means about 200 backers a day.

What's interesting to me is that as the number of comments increases, the number of backers declines on a daily basis. In Pathfinder, the number of daily comments roughly corresponds with backers. To me, that shows the word is getting out, but people are either not buying or remain on the fence. Edit: It was explained to me that only backers can comment. Doh.

I don't see swag winning people over. A real technology demo might.

Niedar_sl · Jan 20, 2014

The problem is that the cost is usually built in, but the cost estimates are wrong.

Orsenfelt_sl · Jan 20, 2014

Whidon1_sl said:
Do people appreciate that this KS has a strong chance of failure at this point? Yes pathfinder got insane funding on it's last day, but it's nuts to rely on that. If this does not do better in the "valley" area we are in there is a good chance we will not be in range to even do a crazy last day like that. As of right now todays numbers and yesterdays are awful when you factor in and they should serve as a good basis for what is going to happen going forward given the trends of other KS.

Pantheon got 70 backers yesterday and is trending for about 70-80 backers today.... it's avg backing is only $125.

Pantheon needs to get 15k a day avg during the period from now till it's last few days to have a real shot. Even then It would still need a massive amount 200k in it's last 3 days to get funded.

At $125 per backer it needs 120 backers per day to get 15k. if it could get to $150 backer avg it would only need 100. Based on the numbers so far I feel this is not going to be easy.

But there is a few ways to really increase it's chance. Yes putting up more and better info on the game will help, but I feel these things will add more backing $

1. Still needs better and more high end tiers. Relying way way to much on sub 1k tiers.

2. Put in SWAG! people love to see they are getting a ton of crap for their backing, it makes it seem like a good deal. just look at all the shit in the CU and Torment put in all the tiers.I know it sucks to deal with so much physical stuff but this is something that could really turn shit around fast.

3. Figure out someway to get another 30-50 backers a day avg. media, Viral campaigning whatever, not my area.

Do these things and pantheon won't need guys donating insane amounts on the last day to have a shot.

Edit: i know the overall numbers on Sunday don't look terrible at 16k, but only 70 backers is worrying. Also the having the two 10k then losing them has possibly messed up the numbers a bit.

Having just wrote a shortarticleabout this and poured over the data I'm cautiously optimisticif they make a few more changes. You say that each backing is 'only $125', the site wide average for Kickstarter is $70. Projects like Star Citizen or Project Eternity were $63 and $53 respectively (and $40-ish on their first days, Pantheon was $91). Individually people are throwing more money at Pantheon than other projects so yes the problem is number of backers, the average pledgeshould be lowerbut it's not and I think it's because the only people backing are people are already fairly sold on the concept/have been waiting for something similar and will buy in high.

If you look at other successful campaigns they all usually follow a similar trend, they start with 2/3 days above the daily average they need then it drops below then it ends high. Star Citizen was at one point getting $24,000/day which is a good way short of what you'd need if all days were equal. Should we absolutely bank on it ending well? Hell no but history shows it happens frequently in these campaigns.

Personally I think the opposite to your point 1, I think the pool of people who'll throw $500+ at this has dried up, that's why the backer count is low but the average pledge is high. What it needs as a "fuck it" tier, it needs a copy of the game for $15 or something. A t-shirt at $40. It should be racking up people who don't really give a shit, who are maybe a bit put off by the simple pre-alpha shots but will throw some change at it because hey what's $15?

Kickstarter as a greater community or as a concept in normal peoples minds kind of expects a bottom of the barrel tier where you getsomething, you buy in early you get it cheap right? Well Pantheon is at $35 before you get anything for keeps. You could just go buy a normal retail game for that and start playing today. Not a game you wait 3 years then have to pay more to play. They should be practically giving a copy of the game away.

jilena_sl · Jan 20, 2014

popsicledeath_sl said:
So, on this forum and elsewhere pretty much everyone supporting this project who knows about Vanguard has raised concerns. But, by not continuing to raise concerns after Brad has address those concerns, and not continuing to fill every other reply with a rant about accountability, means we're ENCOURAGING them to half-ass the project?!

A rational person raises concerns, gets an answer, and is then cautious.

An irrational person raises concerns, gets an answer, re-raises concerns, gets more answers, raises the same concerns and demands someone be held accountable, starts to get less answers because everyone else has moved the fuck on, and then uses that as proof everyone wants the sky to fall and when it does it's going to be because nobody heard the first concerns you raised the first time!!!

They're as organized and professional as they're going to get with the current team and resources. Use that information to inform your decisions and opinions as you wish. That's what most of us have done, and why the BUT I HAVE CONCERNS and BRAD MUST ACCOUNT FOR THE MISTAKES OF VANGUARD bullshit is getting old.

Actually, it's more like this:

Present the idea of the project.

Concerns are raised.

Concerns are addressed by saying "the past is the past and I have learned from my mistakes and this time it's going to be different."

Fair enough by most anyone's standards.

Response is "That's cool Brad, we know people make mistakes! You go get em tiger and make it right this time!"

Most people are happy.

People start asking for details about the game, classes, leveling, etc etc etc.

Answers are fairly generic but with a caveat of "Wait for the kickstarter! I can't reveal much until then!"

Again most people are happy with this.

"Okay, you want to make your big announcement on the kickstarter, we understand!"

Kickstarter day finally gets here.

Kickstarter is steaming pile of unorganized shit with completely generic bullshit info and lore, amateur as fuck videos, confusing pledge tiers, concept art that looks mostly unrelated, and overall offering the distinct feeling that it was just thrown together at the last minute.

Concerns are raised.

Concerns are addressed by fans stating "Oh they probably just started on it!".

Concerns are inflamed by Brad stating "Oh no, we've been working on this since september!"

Concerned people are thinking "Hrm, he said this time it was going to be different. If this jumble of shit is what they came up with in 4 months and they are expecting it to be the driving force to get people to throw money down on their game... What is it going to be like when they aren't in the TEHE WE NEED MONEY phase?"

Concerns are addressed by Brad stating "Sorry guys! We are new to kickstarter! Help us out!"

Concerns are again inflamed when the cleric class "reveal" is nothing but generic bullshit you could pull off of any game website.

Concerned folks are like "Uhhh do you guys even have a design document for this game?!"

All of these concerns are addressed with "Sorry, we realize there are mistakes and we're working on it!"

Concerned folks are like "Give us more info, make us believe, help us want to give you our money!"

Fans reply to concerned with "OMFG GIVE THE GUY A BREAK EVERYONE DESERVES A SECOND CHANCE!"

Concerned folks are like "Uhhh, my expressing interest and asking questions is 100% proof of my desire to give him a second chance... If I just thought he was a piece of shit and didn't want to give him anything, I'd just ignore all of this after maybe calling him a douche a time or three."

Anyway... My point is, these questions and concerns have little to do with Vanguard directly. However, when you have someone who has already committed some offense, you treat them with more skepticism than you would someone who has not. When you have someone who has committed an offense, and is demonstrating behavior that alludes to the prior offense you become MORE skeptical... THAT is being rational.

jilena_sl · Jan 20, 2014

lysis_sl said:
I consider, at least, basic crafting to be essential. The crafting stretch goal should be to add greater depth to that.

I don't think PVP is worth it unless a lot of work is put into it. The bastard child PVP of EQ and VG won't even come close to cutting it anymore.

I think some sort of complex PvP system should never make it into this game. I think an alternate ruleset with people simply flagged to be killable is a lovely idea and requires minimal investment. It can be tweaked later by changes that only have an effect on PvP. i.e. charm/fear nerfs, damage reduction on over the top spells, etc that only kick in when it's two players fighting.

Tuco · Jan 20, 2014

jilena_sl said:
Actually, it's more like this:

Present the idea of the project.

Concerns are raised.

Concerns are addressed by saying "the past is the past and I have learned from my mistakes and this time it's going to be different."

Fair enough by most anyone's standards.

Response is "That's cool Brad, we know people make mistakes! You go get em tiger and make it right this time!"

Most people are happy.

People start asking for details about the game, classes, leveling, etc etc etc.

Answers are fairly generic but with a caveat of "Wait for the kickstarter! I can't reveal much until then!"

Again most people are happy with this.

"Okay, you want to make your big announcement on the kickstarter, we understand!"

Kickstarter day finally gets here.

Kickstarter is steaming pile of unorganized shit with completely generic bullshit info and lore, amateur as fuck videos, confusing pledge tiers, concept art that looks mostly unrelated, and overall offering the distinct feeling that it was just thrown together at the last minute.

Concerns are raised.

Concerns are addressed by fans stating "Oh they probably just started on it!".

Concerns are inflamed by Brad stating "Oh no, we've been working on this since september!"

Concerned people are thinking "Hrm, he said this time it was going to be different. If this jumble of shit is what they came up with in 4 months and they are expecting it to be the driving force to get people to throw money down on their game... What is it going to be like when they aren't in the TEHE WE NEED MONEY phase?"

Concerns are addressed by Brad stating "Sorry guys! We are new to kickstarter! Help us out!"

Concerns are again inflamed when the cleric class "reveal" is nothing but generic bullshit you could pull off of any game website.

Concerned folks are like "Uhhh do you guys even have a design document for this game?!"

All of these concerns are addressed with "Sorry, we realize there are mistakes and we're working on it!"

Concerned folks are like "Give us more info, make us believe, help us want to give you our money!"

Fans reply to concerned with "OMFG GIVE THE GUY A BREAK EVERYONE DESERVES A SECOND CHANCE!"

Concerned folks are like "Uhhh, my expressing interest and asking questions is 100% proof of my desire to give him a second chance... If I just thought he was a piece of shit and didn't want to give him anything, I'd just ignore all of this after maybe calling him a douche a time or three."

Anyway... My point is, these questions and concerns have little to do with Vanguard directly. However, when you have someone who has already committed some offense, you treat them with more skepticism than you would someone who has not. When you have someone who has committed someone offense, and is demonstrating behavior that alludes to the prior offense you become MORE skeptical... THAT is being rational.

This is a very good critique and summary. Brad has a chance with stating he'll create something we want, but if he wants to capitalize on that chance and be successful with his kickstarter he's going to need to do much better.

Lysis · Jan 20, 2014

popsicledeath_sl said:
They're as organized and professional as they're going to get with the current team and resources. Use that information to inform your decisions and opinions as you wish. That's what most of us have done, and why the BUT I HAVE CONCERNS and BRAD MUST ACCOUNT FOR THE MISTAKES OF VANGUARD bullshit is getting old.

Hating at it isn't going to make it going away. It's just going to drive away potential backers. Most of whom will not post in this thread. Brad made some mistakes that are relevant here. Accounting for it is not just addressing the issue. Accounting for it also providing evidence to support the words when you're asking for a second chance.

I don't think Brad owes us anything. But if he wants our money, he's going to have to up his game. Either now or later. This KS doesn't lack swag. It lacks substance. It lacks confidence.

Convo · Jan 20, 2014

My issue with the KS is there wasn't enough good info presented right away. So although a lot us are on board b/c we know Brad and the games he makes, but for a new person or the skeptic? It obviously wasn't enough.. A lot of info has been withheld by the team so they can dedicate a week to certain topics. This week is lore week.. I don't know if that is a good or bad approach. Time will tell I guess. It's really in the details. By end of the KS there should not be people wondering how combat or the class system will play out.. If there are, they better just be dumb or the team has failed at articulating their vision for this game.

Mr Creed · Jan 20, 2014

Lithose_sl said:
Yes, you can try to combat monopolization through adding more raid targets/conetent (And this is a good way to reduce scarcity, yes). But remember, we're still trying to maintain the balance between scarcity and availability.

They do have full control over the average amount of triggers a group can obtain per week, just not the highs and lows. Although with more sophisticated loot drop programming you could even smooth those away, though I feel no need for it. It shouldnt be as common as it was in Silithus, that was just an example.

Lithose_sl said:
The thing is though, that when you add instancing or summoning, your "supply" curve in a typical supply/demand profile is not only affected by time but also by population. Greatly decreasing time until demand is met. This is why controlling how much access each actor within the population has to loot, is so critical for limiting the bad effects of instancing or summoning mobs. (But even this has problems, as Kruegan mentioned earlier--guilds will create alt armies just to have more summons ect. But that can be combated with account wide limitations, I don't know, but ever system has problems).

...

(I disagree a top tier guild might only get one or two--especially if raids are set up where all the mobs are in one place, like NTOV ect.)

In essence, if you have too much content, then gear flows in too quickly. There is no competition then--or it becomes what we would call a public goods dilemma in economics. It's hard to form a competitive market over it because access to it is so easy, and ubiquitous. But if you have it limited, monopolization becomes an issue (Which is what we discussed above). I think the best way to land in the middle of these two difficult problems, is to allow for small, discreet amounts of summoning/instances, to alleviate monopolization, while maintaining scarcity.

An Alt army doesnt help against drop rates, although it does circumvent a simple 10 summons per week limit. You are right that you need to keep inflation in check. But that's within the design as well. I'm assuming handmade itemization so they can make the more readily available summons a bit 'meh', let them be a real "well we got nothing better up so lets do this" ... kinda like LDON raids

If you look at velious without the key bottlenecks (like I said I wouldnt bottleneck on a raid level), while you do Ntov your competition does Sleepers, AoW and misc other shit. Ntov is better due to sheer amount I guess but the others arent screwed IF they can handle the mobs. Not having access to sleepers screwed alot of folks though, same with emperor, same with all of PoP... I like keying on a solo or group level but on a raid level its questionable.

Vandyn · Jan 20, 2014

Orsenfelt_sl said:
Having just wrote a shortarticleabout this and poured over the data I'm cautiously optimisticif they make a few more changes. You say that each backing is 'only $125', the site wide average for Kickstarter is $70. Projects like Star Citizen or Project Eternity were $63 and $53 respectively (and $40-ish on their first days, Pantheon was $91). Individually people are throwing more money at Pantheon than other projects so yes the problem is number of backers, the average pledgeshould be lowerbut it's not and I think it's because the only people backing are people are already fairly sold on the concept/have been waiting for something similar and will buy in high.

If you look at other successful campaigns they all usually follow a similar trend, they start with 2/3 days above the daily average they need then it drops below then it ends high. Star Citizen was at one point getting $24,000/day which is a good way short of what you'd need if all days were equal. Should we absolutely bank on it ending well? Hell no but history shows it happens frequently in these campaigns.

Personally I think the opposite to your point 1, I think the pool of people who'll throw $500+ at this has dried up, that's why the backer count is low but the average pledge is high. What it needs as a "fuck it" tier, it needs a copy of the game for $15 or something. A t-shirt at $40. It should be racking up people who don't really give a shit, who are maybe a bit put off by the simple pre-alpha shots but will throw some change at it because hey what's $15?

Kickstarter as a greater community or as a concept in normal peoples minds kind of expects a bottom of the barrel tier where you getsomething, you buy in early you get it cheap right? Well Pantheon is at $35 before you get anything for keeps. You could just go buy a normal retail game for that and start playing today. Not a game you wait 3 years then have to pay more to play. They should be practically giving a copy of the game away.

The difference also is Pathfinder Online had a huge surge in day one and two (130k+). Pantheon only had 75,000. Also notice that Pathfinder had days where they had huge upsurges in backers

Pan'Theon: Rise' of th'e Fal'Len - #1 Thread in MMO

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