Having just wrote a short
articleabout this and poured over the data I'm cautiously optimistic
if they make a few more changes. You say that each backing is 'only $125', the site wide average for Kickstarter is $70. Projects like Star Citizen or Project Eternity were $63 and $53 respectively (and $40-ish on their first days, Pantheon was $91). Individually people are throwing more money at Pantheon than other projects so yes the problem is number of backers, the average pledge
should be lowerbut it's not and I think it's because the only people backing are people are already fairly sold on the concept/have been waiting for something similar and will buy in high.
If you look at other successful campaigns they all usually follow a similar trend, they start with 2/3 days above the daily average they need then it drops below then it ends high. Star Citizen was at one point getting $24,000/day which is a good way short of what you'd need if all days were equal. Should we absolutely bank on it ending well? Hell no but history shows it happens frequently in these campaigns.
Personally I think the opposite to your point 1, I think the pool of people who'll throw $500+ at this has dried up, that's why the backer count is low but the average pledge is high. What it needs as a "
fuck it" tier, it needs a copy of the game for $15 or something. A t-shirt at $40. It should be racking up people who don't really give a shit, who are maybe a bit put off by the simple pre-alpha shots but will throw some change at it because hey what's $15?
Kickstarter as a greater community or as a concept in normal peoples minds kind of expects a bottom of the barrel tier where you get
something, you buy in early you get it cheap right? Well Pantheon is at $35 before you get anything for keeps. You could just go buy a normal retail game for that and start playing today. Not a game you wait 3 years then have to pay more to play. They should be practically giving a copy of the game away.