The Stock Trading and Shitposting thread.
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Guest, did you like the last podcast notification?? Well here's the second one, and for the third podcast! Yep. This Thursday 8-8-24 at 7pm Central
Go here to check out his podcast thread for info on topics and links!Go into the FoH discord and find the Happy Time Fun Hour channel and give it a listen!
Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
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I am not finding any good positions today so I am in a bit of a holding pattern 
all the major index's I monitor are being squished into a massive consolidation that could explode up or down and I do not trust my abilities enough to pick.
I suppose you could say this would be a great time to put a straddle on one of them....but I think I am going to wait a few days and see where we go
all the major index's I monitor are being squished into a massive consolidation that could explode up or down and I do not trust my abilities enough to pick. I suppose you could say this would be a great time to put a straddle on one of them....but I think I am going to wait a few days and see where we go
The_Black_Log Foler
PalsCo CEO - Stock Pals | Pantheon Pals
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Tmac
Adventurer
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Nah. I’m reading
Blazin
posts and listening to my sister.My sis and bro and law have sold four homes at the top of the market for the last 20 years. She has an uncanny ability to sense it. Last night she said, “It’s time to sell our house again.” I asked why and she said, “I feel it in my gut!”.
Then there’s Blazin’s perspective and the fact that we’ve been running hot for a while. I’m not trying to time anything. I just don’t want to feel the pain.
Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
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The LLY position closed out for over 15%! yay
New Position taken to replace the close, ELF spread
About a 17k bet, goal is for it to stay above 160 by end of next week. It has a 200DMA and support line at around 160, so I am hoping it does just that! would be 3.5k, gain or a bit under 20%
Chart
New Position taken to replace the close, ELF spread
About a 17k bet, goal is for it to stay above 160 by end of next week. It has a 200DMA and support line at around 160, so I am hoping it does just that! would be 3.5k, gain or a bit under 20%
Chart
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Khane
Got something right about marriage
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Nah. I’m reading
My sis and bro and law have sold four homes at the top of the market for the last 20 years. She has an uncanny ability to sense it. Last night she said, “It’s time to sell our house again.” I asked why and she said, “I feel it in my gut!”.
Then there’s Blazin’s perspective and the fact that we’ve been running hot for a while. I’m not trying to time anything. I just don’t want to feel the pain.
There have been 4 "tops of the market" in the last 20 years?
I think your sister just gets bored easily and likes to waste money on fees, interest, and moving costs.
Unless you think she sold at the "top" but also somehow managed to buy the next one she moved in to at the "low" magically.
Tmac
Adventurer
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They've done incredibly well in the housing market, since they got married. Incredibly well.
You don't have to believe me and I'm not going to try to convince you.
4 market tops in real estate, I guess it varies alot based on location but the only time I can remember significant real estate price declines was the great recession. All the other times prices of homes at most just stagnated a couple of years.
Everyone has done well in the housing market. Probably half of my net worth has come from the housing market and it’s not cause I tried it’s just because anyone who bought before 2019 has doubled their money. Real estate has been by far the best most stable investment. I mean the only bad years to buy were what? Mid to late 80s and then 05-09? And even there buying the absolute top you were back to break even in 5 years
Khane
Got something right about marriage
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Right, his sister and her husband would most likely be better off if they just sat in one house that whole time and then just sold now. Maybe refinancing once or twice in that time frame.
The people they bought from during that time did just as well as they did. The market has just steadily gone up.
The people they bought from during that time did just as well as they did. The market has just steadily gone up.
Blazin
Creative Title
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but how do you do well with your primary residence? Aren't you just selling a top and buying a top? They switch to renting? And what ups and downs are we talking about, the housing market has never really gone down accept in certain markets. Calculate the cost of selling taxes and upkeep how do you make money when the best decline ever assuming perfectly timed was only 20%
Doing well in housing just seems a round about way of saying "my currency lost value"
Doing well in housing just seems a round about way of saying "my currency lost value"
Palum
what Suineg set it to
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Well it used to do well for the realtors.
Though I suppose the real answer is what proportion of annual income does the average house make up (principal payments only). So no doubt everyone took a 25% haircut in 3 years, but the other stat is the actual % of real income going to housing. It's a pretty big change as I recall. Keeping aside interest, people who bought a house in say 2018-2019 probably spend 15-30% less of their income on housing. So there are definitely 'worse losers' even if no one is a winner, which is some sort of economic benefit I suppose.
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Blazin
Creative Title
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Yeah don't disagree there is still Good timing and bad timing but not sure I would couch it in terms of making money from an investment standpoint. Most of the pain in housing doesn't come from price drops it comes from people burrowing near 100% or even more at peak crazy then feeling squeezed. The thing that happens at housing peaks is people climbing higher up the cost structure than they ever should, then a decline is people returning to more normal levels of encumbrance until the process repeats.
Tmac
Adventurer
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I like how you have asked zero questions and have no information and you’re making wild leaps about what would have been better
Bruh.
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Tmac
Adventurer
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I guess my perspective has blinders for sure. They’ve used every sell of a house to buy a “better” house and have typically moved into nicer areas…which is a bit of a misnomer bc everywhere they’ve lived as been nice.
They bought in ‘08, sold and bought around ‘13, then sold again and bought around ‘17. Their family was growing during this time and they needed more space and equity was falling from the sky. However, each house they sold was bc they received unsolicited offers that were HIGH compared to comps.
So, even tho the last 16 years of home buying has been easy mode, idk a lot of people that got offered wads of cash without ever having to list their homes twice in a row.
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Rangoth
Blackwing Lair Raider
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Just so people don't think I always post wins.
That ELF position dropped 8% today and ripped right through both 200DMA and support line. So, if it stays at it's current position it is a total loss My first total loss in a while actually. However it is outside the lower BB, oversold, and I am hoping a bit of an overreaction of the earnings.
I really have only 2 choices at this point:
Ahhh well, can't win em all and I probably would have played this one again because of the multiple levels of support. My other positions are doing well at least!
That ELF position dropped 8% today and ripped right through both 200DMA and support line. So, if it stays at it's current position it is a total loss
My first total loss in a while actually. However it is outside the lower BB, oversold, and I am hoping a bit of an overreaction of the earnings.I really have only 2 choices at this point:
- Let it sit and see if it will recover enough to either turn profitable or at least not be a total loss
- Get assigned 470k of ELF(yuk) and then try to sell CC's on it for the next 6 months until I can find an opportunity to unload
Ahhh well, can't win em all and I probably would have played this one again because of the multiple levels of support. My other positions are doing well at least!
