Pretty much. Although UT has more info about the companies and games he "predicts" will fail than most other people do. And more info is always good.
Predict a success then I'll be impressed.
Difference between Ut and a nay sayer is that nay sayers/negative people tend to say it without any real knowledge of the product or the people behind it. While mmos in beta and alpha might be products we know little about, Ut has a large knowledge of the people behind the games and the game mechanics that originated from EQ. In Vanguard he said the game would not be what it set out to be, as well as critizise direct persons. He was proven right on both accounts. In the 38 studio thread, he did the same. There too, Shilling, while new to the games industry, proved to do more or less exactly what Ut said he would.
A naysayer in a Vanguard thread might say on the subject of death penalties
- ZOMG. You want death penalty? Like hell levels then or what? That was a good idea! Dumbass! They are not fun, and not a good game mechanic!!
There were... so...many... posts like that in the early FoH Vanguard threads which made me think immediately of a WoW player and not an EQ player. As hell levels were a bug in the code that people still complained about in levels years after they were removed. People seemed to think that when exp seemed to slow (due to them having been at a camp for a few levels), that it was suddenly a hell level. Takes forever to level to 61! Hell level! Why do they implement it like this!! I remember seeing hell levels talked about a lot in early WoW. I guess tales spread, and suddenly that was the only thing people who had never really played EQ thought of the death mechanics. Exp loss, longer leveling for no reason. Just inflated gametime. What crap, right?!
Ut on the other hand might respond like this
- They say they will implement this feature, but look at the track record of the dev behind it! He was the incompetent guy who fubared the code in EQ, and is now promoted to lead designer! This will fail. And due to them saying this, and it can not be true, then this, this, and this, will also fail by default. This game will be a failure!
Accuracy goes beyond just simply being negative about games. It is more critizism against intended game mechanics that he often thinks will fail, not because he has experienced it or has first hand industry knowledge, but because he has no belief X designer will be able to pull off what they are saying. He is certainly constantly in danger of being wrong as he does not "know" more than we about the actual games, just apparently been around long enough to see the genre evolve, and remembering who did what. He has little faith in people and their ability to change. A lack of faith that I guess comes from constantly being proved right in his negativity. I am sure he would like a success too, a negative person would be offended by that.
Ut is the atheist of mmorpgs. No holy vision can convince him, and with no belief that there are any that can do what they say they will. I am more of an agnostic. I do not know, but I can get excited with the hype. Both of us probably falling in the category of gladly embracing it if it shows itself to be real and good.