NVidia GeForce RTX 50x0 cards - 70% performance increase, but AI > you

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rhinohelix

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Fighting fomo like this is never gonna work out in your favor. AI will almost certainly be this generation's tech boom of the 90s.
AI is the 2007-009 "Cloud" IT hype cycle. It's not going to be nothing but its going to lose its luster and eventually be incorporated into a lot of things silently. It can't create anything but can summarize and regurgitate data/datasets super quickly. LLM chat bots will do low level simple(ish? as much as they can get away with) things; its part of a larger automation trend that is filling in lots of gaps to increase productivity as low cost labor markets get less cost/PR advantageous, and the desire to near-/re-on-shore work grows stronger in the coming few years (Part of the reason the H1B visa issue was so prickly for Elon et al).

Gartner IT Hype Cycle for reference.

Gatner IT Hype Cycle.png
 
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RobXIII

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"fake and gay FPS" should definitely be the buzzword for this generation

go forth

I'll be curious to see how the fake and gay FPS fucks with VR headsets. We have reprojection / ghosting when it fakes frames to keep you from puking on PSVR2 even on the Pro.
/boggle
 

Mist

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I'll be curious to see how the fake and gay FPS fucks with VR headsets. We have reprojection / ghosting when it fakes frames to keep you from puking on PSVR2 even on the Pro.
/boggle
just don't turn it on?
 

Pyros

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I'll be curious to see how the fake and gay FPS fucks with VR headsets. We have reprojection / ghosting when it fakes frames to keep you from puking on PSVR2 even on the Pro.
/boggle
Does DLSS even work with VR to begin with? The frames are just the new DLSS, and they've been done frame gen with DLSS for over a year, so unless it was a concern then not sure how it would be now. Plus DLSS is just an option you turn on like anti aliasing or vsync, it's not something that the card does all the time, in fact this shit doesn't work on many game since they specifically need DLSS support, all bigger games tend to get it but a lot of indie/smaller games don't, or use the older versions cause presumably they're easier to implement.
 

velk

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AI is the 2007-009 "Cloud" IT hype cycle. It's not going to be nothing but its going to lose its luster and eventually be incorporated into a lot of things silently.

I am sure Open AI would be truly devastated to be an overhyped failure like AWS ;p

I am a bit more cynical and would compare it to blockchain hype instead. 98% of the breathlessly promoted applications are obvious nonsense, and tacking 'with AI !' onto something is a good way to convince me that you are either an idiot or a scammer.
 

rhinohelix

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I am sure Open AI would be truly devastated to be an overhyped failure like AWS ;p

I am a bit more cynical and would compare it to blockchain hype instead. 98% of the breathlessly promoted applications are obvious nonsense, and tacking 'with AI !' onto something is a good way to convince me that you are either an idiot or a scammer.
I agree that "on the blockchain" immediately turns off all interest for me as well but that's what I think the difference is between that and AI. "The blockchain" will never be a serious part of anyone's life or any company's technology portfolio. It may be used for some things but at a deep tech level that isn't truly transformative in any way, IIRC; I am sure someone will correct me if I am not in the right here.

"Cloud/In the cloud/Private cloud was a neverending drum beat I had to listen to for years that just meant virtualization, high speed/low latency WAN connections and distributed storage. It was such a damn buzzword I got so sick of hearing it but it was indeed impactful and transformative in lots of ways, just not the dreamy, high concept ways initially pitched as the hype cycle took off.

All of those things, AWS/Azure/SAAS etc all flowed from that, as virtualization broke out of local implementation (who doesn't love their first VMware host/guests cluster) and big companies started during it at scale. I think AI, which is really just Compute reaching a level where it can do operations fast enough to return meaningful results in almost a real-time fashion, is going to be more the Cloud than the blockchain, simply for the automation/analyses it offers.

I am not talking about ChatGPT/LLM Chatbots, although that's one aspect of it, its being able to take a screenshot of logs and have AI do analysis of any errors and recommend troubleshooting steps; its document handling and process flows; its reading 1000-page legislation and providing summaries and analyses in just a few minutes, real time spoken language translation, its a thousand things like this and more.

AI isn't going to be your girlfriend but it is going to be adapted to do lots of relatively small(ish) tasks very quickly and provide human comprehensible results in a way that's just getting started. SAAS was a nascent field IIRC 25 years ago but today many major companies have business critical software hosted externally and managed and maintained by third parties.

TDLR: Right now its just a hot buzzword; AI isn't magic and won't give us flying cars and robot girlfriends but as it gets realistically implemented and utilized it *is* going to have big impacts in non-visible (and probably some very visible) ways for everyone in society.
 
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ronne

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I agree that "on the blockchain" immediately turns off all interest for me as well but that's what I think the difference is between that and AI. "The blockchain" will never be a serious part of anyone's life or any company's technology portfolio. It may be used for some things but at a deep tech level that isn't truly transformative in any way, IIRC; I am sure someone will correct me if I am not in the right here.

"Cloud/In the cloud/Private cloud was a neverending drum beat I had to listen to for years that just meant virtualization, high speed/low latency WAN connections and distributed storage. It was such a damn buzzword I got so sick of hearing it but it was indeed impactful and transformative in lots of ways, just not the dreamy, high concept ways initially pitched as the hype cycle took off.

All of those things, AWS/Azure/SAAS etc all flowed from that, as virtualization broke out of local implementation (who doesn't love their first VMware host/guests cluster) and big companies started during it at scale. I think AI, which is really just Compute reaching a level where it can do operations fast enough to return meaningful results in almost a real-time fashion, is going to be more the Cloud than the blockchain, simply for the automation/analyses it offers.

I am not talking about ChatGPT/LLM Chatbots, although that's one aspect of it, its being able to take a screenshot of logs and have AI do analysis of any errors and recommend troubleshooting steps; its document handling and process flows; its reading 1000-page legislation and providing summaries and analyses in just a few minutes, real time spoken language translation, its a thousand things like this and more.

AI isn't going to be your girlfriend but it is going to be adapted to do lots of relatively small(ish) tasks very quickly and provide human comprehensible results in a way that's just getting started. SAAS was a nascent field IIRC 25 years ago but today many major companies have business critical software hosted externally and managed and maintained by third parties.

TDLR: Right now its just a hot buzzword; AI isn't magic and won't give us flying cars and robot girlfriends but as it gets realistically implemented and utilized it *is* going to have big impacts in non-visible (and probably some very visible) ways for everyone in society.

The easiest way I've explained it to people, especially non-tech people, is that there is never really going to be a consumer-level 'AI' product that will impact their lives or matter to them at all.

No one is ever getting an Ironman style Jarvis personal assistant or whatever.

What IS going to happen (and already is) is backend big data processing, collation and implenetation is going to get a LOT better. Think in terms of like being able to build accurate marketing profiles on a per-person basis for everyone on the planet type shit. Your random Google adds are about to get VERY specific and frighteningly relevant to you over the next few years. And they won't even need to spy on your phone microphone anymore to do it.

Blockchain is entirely memes outside of maybe someday in the distant future a government somewhere trying to use it as a ledger for holding elections/tallying votes, but even that is a stretch.
 
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ToeMissile

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The easiest way I've explained it to people, especially non-tech people, is that there is never really going to be a consumer-level 'AI' product that will impact their lives or matter to them at all.

No one is ever getting an Ironman style Jarvis personal assistant or whatever.

What IS going to happen (and already is) is backend big data processing, collation and implenetation is going to get a LOT better. Think in terms of like being able to build accurate marketing profiles on a per-person basis for everyone on the planet type shit. Your random Google adds are about to get VERY specific and frighteningly relevant to you over the next few years. And they won't even need to spy on your phone microphone anymore to do it.

Blockchain is entirely memes outside of maybe someday in the distant future a government somewhere trying to use it as a ledger for holding elections/tallying votes, but even that is a stretch.
I wouldn’t flat out say never. Not any time soon, not with current hardware/LLM’s, not until energy production is 10x, and any number of other known/unknown things. And maybe never Jarvis levels, but some sort of functional assistant that makes where we are now seem like something from the 80s
 
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Mist

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The easiest way I've explained it to people, especially non-tech people, is that there is never really going to be a consumer-level 'AI' product that will impact their lives or matter to them at all.

No one is ever getting an Ironman style Jarvis personal assistant or whatever.

What IS going to happen (and already is) is backend big data processing, collation and implenetation is going to get a LOT better. Think in terms of like being able to build accurate marketing profiles on a per-person basis for everyone on the planet type shit. Your random Google adds are about to get VERY specific and frighteningly relevant to you over the next few years. And they won't even need to spy on your phone microphone anymore to do it.

Blockchain is entirely memes outside of maybe someday in the distant future a government somewhere trying to use it as a ledger for holding elections/tallying votes, but even that is a stretch.
Search UX for internal knowledgebases are going to get a lot better, but only after companies spend years cleaning up their shit.
In general, people using computers will be able to access answers faster, but they won't always be right (they aren't always right now.)
Artistic tools will likely get more automated functions. Think animation tools that add transitionary frames for you, pretty good ones.
Weak-but-useful forms of AI will get baked into tons of common software.
Governments are going to do some fucked up shit with it for sure though, sentiment analysis over large datasets got a lot easier as long as you've got access to enough GPUs...
 
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rhinohelix

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I wouldn’t flat out say never. Not any time soon, not with current hardware/LLM’s, not until energy production is 10x, and any number of other known/unknown things. And maybe never Jarvis levels, but some sort of functional assistant that makes where we are now seem like something from the 80s
Depends on the scope: An Alexa/Siri that minds your calendar/contacts/phone calls/ checks email, googles searches based on voice requests, etc? Sure, that kind of Newton personal assistant is possible and maybe even probable within a decade or so, depending on the functionality and design (speaking of the cloud). It's kind of got the same UI issues that VR had/has to jump: Voice control is OK when you are alone, its decidedly less optimal in public, for instance. I don't use it but I think Microsoft is baby-stepping this with CoPilot, right? Apple Intelligence also just rolled out, which another foray to put this in the consumer space. I mean, its nifty at times but doesn't play to AI's biggest strengths; unless there is a "killer app" found in the consumer space, it will die out/down like every other marketing push once the new wears off.

Do normal people really get enough email to need AI to summarize their daily email or do google searches on topics for them? I can see if it amalgamated all socials in one place and specifically learned/curated to your interests, News stories from across the world, recommending music, etc. Basically a dilation mechanism ("Dilate Your Mind", per those Pop Savants Duran Duran) for the information overload that today's web has become.

This kind of thing I can see AI filling that role fantastically. We as a society are becoming unable to create anything new; we are being the mental version (I guess physically as well) of the humans from WALL-E; why not have software robots curate our nostalgia for us as well?

Fake Edit:

Search UX for internal knowledgebases are going to get a lot better, but only after companies spend years cleaning up their shit.
In general, people using computers will be able to access answers faster, but they won't always be right (they aren't always right now.)
Artistic tools will likely get more automated functions. Think animation tools that add transitionary frames for you, pretty good ones.
Weak-but-useful forms of AI will get baked into tons of common software.
Governments are going to do some fucked up shit with it for sure though, sentiment analysis over large datasets got a lot easier as long as you've got access to enough GPUs...
Both you and ronne articulate the use cases better than I did but its the underlying, subtle transformational power of AI that we will be talking about in 2040, and potentially one or two big top-line revolutionary things.
 

Chimney

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I have been using AI heavily for the past year (I work an IT/Marketing hybrid role) and my company has pushed hard to early adopt and it is fantastic tbh.

We use it company wide for our graphics database, knowledge base and have an in house bot that basically can produce content as our brand voice plus all the other general usage that comes with one.

I use it for coding, workflow/automation for emails, proofing, rewriting assets, creating text -> speech style "podcasts", video generation, multi channel content creation (stuff that is already made, but the AI tools break it into multi channel pieces) as well as custom user agents for some of the software we use.

Been to quite a few conferences over the last year with big companies and what is on the horizon (at least for the software I'm familiar with) is just so so good for efficiency. I can't imagine working without it now since it takes away quite a bit of tedious work and makes you look even better if you're already known as a competent employee.

Plus leaves more time for gaming ;D
 
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DickTrickle

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It's useful for stuff where there isn't a big penalty for being wrong or off sometimes or that you would naturally iterate through more than once. I wouldn't trust it with anything needing to be right the first time or to allow it to check itself (like code testing).
 
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Big Phoenix

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It's useful for stuff where there isn't a big penalty for being wrong or off sometimes or that you would naturally iterate through more than once. I wouldn't trust it with anything needing to be right the first time or to allow it to check itself (like code testing).
With current iterations of chatgpt for example you really need an understanding of what you're having it generate because it will often times spit out nonsense or an error.
 
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ToeMissile

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It's useful for stuff where there isn't a big penalty for being wrong or off sometimes or that you would naturally iterate through more than once. I wouldn't trust it with anything needing to be right the first time or to allow it to check itself (like code testing).
I find it helpful for getting initial research going for work or home projects. Lately I’ve been running through vacation scenarios for the family and it’s pretty great to throw all the requirements in and having it spit out a solid base to tweak. Even pretty solid cost estimates. This alone has saved me a good dozen hours of research.
 
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Noodleface

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AI is the 2007-009 "Cloud" IT hype cycle. It's not going to be nothing but its going to lose its luster and eventually be incorporated into a lot of things silently. It can't create anything but can summarize and regurgitate data/datasets super quickly. LLM chat bots will do low level simple(ish? as much as they can get away with) things; its part of a larger automation trend that is filling in lots of gaps to increase productivity as low cost labor markets get less cost/PR advantageous, and the desire to near-/re-on-shore work grows stronger in the coming few years (Part of the reason the H1B visa issue was so prickly for Elon et al).

Gartner IT Hype Cycle for reference.

View attachment 569772
I work in AI and absolutely this is true. It's shiny and new but the luster is going to wear off.

I've been documenting for our company how shitty it actually is.
 
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Mist

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I work in AI and absolutely this is true. It's shiny and new but the luster is going to wear off.

I've been documenting for our company how shitty it actually is.
idk Altman Sam is gathering all the heads of state on the 30th

says he's got his own pocket god